Yesterday's tongue-in-cheek review of the talents of Rudy Fernandez leads us to a bigger, more serious question: How exactly do you tell whether a guy is going to make an impact anyway?
我们需要用我们谈论的警告来介绍讨论粉丝and media-types know, not professional scouts and those in the business. They have all kinds of systems and all kinds of time to research and watch. Unless we have a pipeline to those folks we don't have the same advantages.
无论如何，随着夏天的航行和赛季的临近，它是时候分享戴夫几乎不可变定理＃24。它是这样的：
在99.9％的情况下，判断一个人将成为一个好的NBA球员的唯一方法是看到他在实际的NBA游戏中发挥得很好。不......做几个。
本定理必须导致推论24A：
夏季联盟，欧元联盟，训练营和非正式做法都有他们的位置，但他们都不是常规赛的成功。当然，一些在那些场地中闪耀的谁已经走向了很大的表现，但就像许多人一样。什么是没有人在他们插入他们的第一场比赛之前听到的人，继续发挥体面的影响。在夏季联赛，培训营和其他竞争和压力的情况下，竞争和压力不一样。当真实交易到来时，您可以在其中一个游戏中获得40个游戏中的40％。防御没有协调。人才要么不一样，要么没有全力以赴。他们只是不可靠的预测因子。
The overseas leagues are a little different. There the talent level and competition can approach NBA level. But it isn't a case of "better" or "worse", it's just a completely different game. There's always a significant adjustment for Euro stars coming over here. Some make it, some don't. Dirk Nowitzki was laughed at when he was drafted and widely considered a bust after his first year. Parker and Ginobili were drafted very late compared to their eventual impact. Guys like Frederick Weis don't make it at all. The talent is there in all those cases but even for the experts it's hit and miss. You just don't know when, how, or how much of an impact a guy will have based on his European play.
All of these venues are similar. Guys can drop out at any one of them, but they can't cement themselves in through any. You can end your budding career really quickly in Vegas or Bologna but you can't guarantee it there. Thus the corollary about the bad news being the only reliable news.
This also, by the way, applies to news about various leaps in development from guys already in the league. How many times have you heard, "Player X is getting in shape this off-season" only to have that player show up with Krispy Kremes oozing out of their jacket pockets? We hear all the time about players developing jump shots, bulking up, turning over new leaves in their attitudes and personal lives. All of those things can and do happen, but far more rarely than they are reported. And either way the only way you really see a difference it is when it comes out on the court. Here too the only truly trustworthy news is the bad. Travis Outlaw may or may not have developed a legitimate, consistent NBA scoring move over the summer. Greg Oden really did need surgery.
当然有exceptions. Some players, usually from the U.S. college or high school basketball systems, are on a plain track to stardom from the moment you see them. LeBron James was one. I think Greg Oden will probably turn out to be another. Also sometimes you can tell by a player's past body of work that summer development really is taking hold. Lamarcus Aldridge is one of those. Having seen his development last season you can tell by the way he moves, his body, and his shot that something is brewing this year even just seeing him in Summer League. However these are the exceptions, not the rule. Everybody who gets even an outside chance at the Show is a good player, otherwise they wouldn't be looked at. You can find great things about all of their games. But the harsh reality is that more of them will look good before they make the league than will actually turn out good once they get there.
所以回到你知道玩家如何产生影响的原始问题......简短的答案是我们几乎从未做过。当然人们会说they do...media folks and fans alike. If you bet the ponies enough you're going to come up with some winners, so everybody has a little something to hang their hats on. (Or more likely someone about which they can say, "WOOHOO！我已经告诉过你了！“）但是当涉及可靠，可预测的信息时，那里并不多。
As with every pre-season we're going to start hearing a lot of stuff in the next month or so. 95% of it will be really good-sounding stuff. At least 75% of that good-sounding stuff will be wrong, or at least not materialize. I remember last year in the heart of the pre-season one of the national websites asked various team bloggers to submit an analysis and prediction for their teams in the upcoming season.三十八个博主的二十八岁预测他们的团队将在来年比过去一年更多的胜利。我想知道NBA是否会提出额外的团队来吸收所有这些损失。（我认为如果他们去的话，他们就可以这样做，如，0-121赛季。）而且大部分增加的胜利都被正好上放在了新的收购的肩膀上，年轻球员的发展，或退伍军人从伤害返回细态。
就像其他人一样，在一年中的这个时候，我将正在审查各个团队，包括对燃烧者的前景进行了一些广泛的工作。就像任何体面的粉丝一样，我希望我的展望我们的团队将会有些乐观。但是，随着我们的驳船的驳船，在下个月的驳船上 - 里面 - 我的内容包括 - 在我们看到它在法庭上播放之前，我们都不知道。在过去十年中，媒体覆盖率已经成为如此预测导向，因此很容易忘记这一点。每个人都希望被视为天才，但我们都不是真的，也没有人拯救了真实决定的人。（也许只有一半，呃？）
简而言之......享受阅读和所有的好处梦想，但保持你的盐脂肪方便。我们都需要他们。
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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