It has become pretty clear by now that the probability of this current Blazers team ever winning a title is extremely low. Looking back over the past NBA champions since 1990 - something stands out: A+ talent. Not a team of B or B+ talent.
(Lakers,Celtics,Spurs,Heat, Spurs,Pistons, Spurs, Lakers x 3, Spurs,Bullsx 3,Rocketsx 2, Bulls x 3)
The only real anomaly in there is the Pistons in 03/04 and I'm still sure how that happened. Looking back even farther, this trend becomes even more apparent. You win titles based on having superstars. Players that just can't be stopped when the game is on the line. Players that can take over a game or even a series.
Outside of that Pistons team, all the other teams listed above had at least one (in many cases 2, and in some cases as many as 3) hall of fame player. Kobe, Gasol, Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Wade, Shaq, Duncan (to a lesser extent Ginobli and Parker), Robinson, Jordan, Pippen, Rodman, Hakeem, Barkley, Drexler, etc. etc. Now let's look at the Blazers.
Roy should end up being a hall of famer, but I think we have seen about what he is going to be - a well rounded player who plays an unselfish style. 22pts/5rbs/5assists with an occasional explosion. However, we have seen how good defensive teams can totally shut him down unlike the other superstars listed above. He seems destined to be a second-tier star. Aldridge is probably about where he is always going to be - 18pts/7rbs/1blk. Put either of these guys (or both) on a team with a major superstar and you have a possible dynasty. The one wild-card was that number one draft pick which was turned intoGreg Oden. However, even if Oden gets healthy (which is a huge if), he doesn't appear to have the make up or skills to dominate enough to take the pressure off of Roy and Aldridge.
所以,希望最好的开拓者for is to catch lightning in a bottle like that 03/04 Pistons team and get on a playoff hot streak and run into a team in the conference or NBA finals that has some internal turmoil or injury problems. So, unless the Blazers make a significant move or Roy/Aldridge/Oden makes some monumental leap - which seems highly improbably now - I'd cap the Blazers title probability over the next 10 years at about 5 to 10%.
Looking at the list of teams that actually made a Finals, though, you see quite a few teams that would compare more favorably to the Blazers: 05/06 Mavs, 04/05 Pistons, 01/02 and 02/03Nets, 00/01 76'ers, 99/00Pacers, etc. So I'd put the odds of somehow making a Finals (but losing) at perhaps 25%.
Dare to dream.
