A couple days ago we ran adiscussion pieceasking how good people thought the Trail Blazers would be assuming the lineup remained basically unchanged between now and the start of next season. The conversation in that piece was interesting. Today I want to share my glaring concern with the roster and look at the Blazers' chances of addressing it. To start with, let's review the presumed lineup:
- Raymond Felton PG.
- Wesley Matthews SG
- Gerald Wallace SF
- 拉马卡尔·阿尔德里奇PF.
- Marcus Camby C
长椅
- Brandon Roy SG
- Nicolas Batum F.
- Greg Oden C (probably after January)
- Some combination of Chris Johnson, Luke Babbitt, Elliot Williams, Nolan Smith, and whatever other guys currently on the roster you'd like to speculate about.
这是交易。无论您如何看待参与的玩家的个人才能，列出阵容，我看到了六个可以依赖于半成一致的比赛时间的人。格雷格·奥登的赛道记录是显而易见的。布兰登罗伊仍然在有限的分钟内，即使是不一致。从旋转的底部没有人显示出任何攀登常规旋转点的迹象。这将留下Felton，Matthews，Wallace，Aldridge，Camby和Batum为团队依赖。即使你最大限度地评估他们的技能，那就是一个瘦的群体。
你可以进一步走。在伤病后，马库斯坎比的效果在上一季后半部分开。说他受伤的倾向于太远，但他对失败时间没有陌生人。杰拉尔德华莱士也被称为伤害风险，在他的职业生涯中每年玩超过72场比赛。现在，您将成为Felton，Matthews，Batum和Aldridge完全不可存放的82场比赛。即使你想扔沃莱斯回来，你仍然在谈论重大分钟，并在4-5名球员上进行重大压力。有些人争辩说，拉马库斯·阿尔德里奇上赛季过高。这个问题可以今年三倍或四倍。休克缩短的季节实际上可以证明这支球队的女神。
People seem to be speculating that the Blazers can work their way out of this corner in a couple ways. Some argue that the team is going to get better organically through the development of all its players. I believe that some players will grow, but this argument is advanced far more than it actually happens. That kind of growth isn't automatic, otherwise every team in the league would get gradually better year by year until everybody got great. I remember particularly a year or two ago I was wondering how much more the Blazers could achieve and somebody eloquently spelled out in the comment section how impossible it would be for the team to do worse in the coming year because so many players would develop. Yet the team has won fewer games than the year before for two years straight now, likely with more promise available than currently exists. The truth is some players develop, some stay the same, some regress, and some just never make it at all. As I said last week, all six of the Blazers six first round point guard picks in the last seven years proved less than serviceable, and that's not even counting the second-rounders from Taurean Green to Armon Johnson. Nicolas Batum may get better and he may not. How much better can Aldridge get? Where is the improvement going to come from and how much will there be? It's possible a whole bunch of people may get better at once, but it's certainly not guaranteed. In any case, they're going to need a ton of organic growth to leapfrog into the conference elite.
The other common argument is that the Blazers will pick up a big man using the Mid-Level Exception, presumed to carry over into the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. I wonder who would fit the bill? Portland needs serious help at the center and power forward positions. I have no doubt that they can pick up Earl Barrons all the day long but what true difference makers will be available at 6'10" or above? Those are still among the rarest commodities in the league. And even should that guy shake free, what would entice him to join the Blazers as opposed to any of the other 29 teams that have the MLE handy? Miami is hungry for a big, as are Boston and the Lakers. How many impact players are there to go around?
The Blazers aren't in an impossible situation but they're in a tight spot. This is a large issue with no easy out. Once again we're staring down the barrel of depending upon Brandon Roy and/or Greg Oden to ride in and save the day. Nobody's comfortable with that, but it remains the most viable option unless the Blazers have an amazing rabbit left to pull out of the hat.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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