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Goodbye Clippers, helloTrail Blazers. In a semi-stunning twist Monday the General Manager of theLos Angeles Clippers, Neil Olshey,left his old team to become Portland's new, long-awaited GM.
Does this mean the Blazers will finally be gettingChris Paul?
We're not sure of the answer to that question or whether another heretofore-undiscovered point guard miracle might be on the way. But we do know about a few possible advantages:
- Olshey was in charge of his team. The Blazers eschewed trainees and second bananas in favor of someone with actual GM experience.
- That said, he also worked his way up the ladder, earning his stripes over the better part of a decade with the Clippers.
- Olshey's team prospered during his tenure as GM. This came about through a bunch of small, perhaps smart, moves and one huge no-brainer that's unlikely to be repeated.
- Olshey's fairly handsome.
- If trade wars are decided by Pig Latin, he's completely invulnerable. Take that Am-say Esti-pray!
We also have this from Steve Perrin atClipsNation:
Olshey put together the most successful Clippers team in franchise history, with a series of shrewd moves, the most spectacular of which was the acquisition of Chris Paul. His first year at the helm featured a series of low impact and questionable transactions --Eric Bledsoeis looking like a steal picking 18th in the 2010 draft, butAl-Farouq Aminu(因为交易)看起来更像是一个bust; free agentsRandy Foye,Ryan GomesandBrian Cookranged from merely mediocre to truly terrible, though none were particularly expensive. But since February 2011 Olshey has been on a roll. The trade that sentBaron Davisto Cleveland may have cost the Clippers a first round draft pick, but given that Davis missed about half of this season and suffered a knee injury that could end his career in the playoffs, the deal is looking prescient. Olshey used the cap space freed up in the Davis trade to signCaron Butler, who started at small forward all season. He then grabbedChauncey Billupsoff of amnesty waivers, and more importantly, sold him on the idea of playing for the Clippers.Reggie Evans,Kenyon MartinandNick Youngwere all acquired for next to nothing as the season progressed, and all made significant contributions to a team that won a playoff series. Quite an improvement for a team that went 32-50 a season ago.
For a complete look at Olshey's accumulated transactions and what they could indicate,click through.
Thanks toBasketball-Reference.comwe can break down Olshey's transactions as a General Manager fairly simply. I have limited the field to his actual tenure as GM. He served the organization for years before, but as Blazers fans well know you can chase your tail all day playing Where's Waldo with credit. We're keeping it simple. Here's what happened when he was in charge:
Draft-Day Transactions
June 24th, 2010
DraftedAl-Farouq Aminuin the 1st round (8th pick) of the 2010 NBA Draft.
DraftedWillie Warrenin the 2nd round (54th pick) of the 2010 NBA Draft.
Traded a future 1st round draft pick to theOklahoma City ThunderforEric Bledsoe.
June 23, 2011
DraftedTrey Thompkinsin the 2nd round (37th pick) of the 2011 NBA Draft.
DraftedTravis Lesliein the 2nd round (47th pick) of the 2011 NBA Draft.
Analysis
As Steve Perrin mentioned, Bledsoe is the sole rose among the thorns here. Even that is marginal, as he's yet to prove himself. In Olshey's defense we're only talking two years of drafting here and only one native first-round pick. Also keep in mind that the Blazers aren't necessarily looking to rebuild through the draft alone. They're not hiring Olshey for his scouting ability...or at least not primarily. They want a mover, shaker, contract and trade guy. Portland likely has a book on 2012 draftees in case they don't move their picks. Olshey will step into that system instead of having to come up with two draft picks on the fly. In Portland's ideal world they'd give him nothing but low first-rounders to work with in subsequent years, the product of a good team.
It is worth noting that Olsheyused to work developing potential NBA drafteesso he has been active in the system. If the Blazers do end up rebuilding through the draft he'll likely feel comfortable. (Note: That link is a must-read from Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN.com about Olshey's background.)
February 24, 2011
TradedBaron Davisand a 2011 1st round draft pick (Kyrie Irving) to theCleveland CavaliersforJamario MoonandMo Williams.
December 14, 2011
TradedAl-Farouq Aminu,Eric Gordon,Chris Kamanand a 2012 1st round draft pick to theNew Orleans HornetsforChris Paul, a 2015 2nd round draft pick and a 2015 2nd round draft pick.
March 15, 2012
As part of a 3-team trade, theLos Angeles ClipperstradedBrian Cookand a 2015 2nd round draft pick to theWashington Wizards; theDenver NuggetstradedNene Hilarioto theWashington Wizards; theWashington WizardstradedJaVale McGeeandRonny Turiafto theDenver Nuggets; and theWashington WizardstradedNick Youngto theLos Angeles Clippers.
Analysis
In this group you have a Big Bummer, a Big Whopper, and a crafty move for need. The Bummer, obviously, was losing out onKyrie Irvingby dishing out an unprotected lottery pick to get rid of Baron Davis' salary cap crater. Even though sacrificing the first overall pick is heart-breaking, the move did accomplish its goal. The Clips cleared space on cap and roster and ended up with a pretty decent point guard in Chris Paul. That Whopper trade is one of the more striking transactions in years, but just as credit to the bad is muted a little in the first deal, credit to the good is muted here. The circumstances were odd and all but un-repeatable. The third trade may be the most intriguing. The principals in it were Nene andJaVale McGee...neither one a Clipper. But Olshey had lost Chauncey Billups and knew his team needed help for their playoff run, so he wormed in as a third party facilitating the trade. That's the kind of opportunism and ingenuity the Blazers will be looking for...not so much wielding a sledgehammer but slipping through tight spaces to pull off smart deals.
Free Agent Signings
2010年7月8日
SignedRandy Foyeas a free agent. SignedRyan Gomesas a free agent.
July 9, 2010
SignedBrian Cookas a free agent.
September 27, 2010
SignedJarron Collinsas a free agent. SignedJake Voskuhlas a free agent.
December 22, 2010
SignedIke Dioguas a free agent.
December 9, 2011
SignedCaron Butleras a free agent.
December 12, 2011
SignedChauncey Billupsas a free agent.
December 22, 2011
SignedReggie Evansas a free agent.
January 3, 2012
SignedSolomon Jonesas a free agent.
January 16, 2012
SignedCourtney Fortsonas a free agent.
February 3, 2012
SignedKenyon Martinas a free agent.
February 27, 2012
SignedBobby Simmonsto two 10-day contracts, then signed to a contract for the rest of the season.
Analysis
Three things stand out here:
- There's a fair amount of chaff in there, but much of that chaff has also blown through the Blazers organization or been suggested as potential Portland targets. Olshey and the Blazers appear to think alike.
- The striking signings are Caron Butler, Chauncey Billups, and Kenyon Martin. All three are pedigreed veterans of the type the Blazers would love to see aroundLaMarcus AldridgeandNicolas Batum. Olshey appears to have used cap space and recruiting skills well.
- 13在1.5年签约并不是压倒性的considering that several were low-level, but Olshey certainly doesn't have any problems being aggressive in both high and low levels of the free agent market...one of Portland's mandates.
Final Analysis
Olshey's record isn't spotless, but he possesses several key attributes of interest to the Blazers: GM experience, cap management, trade acumen, and the ability to sign free agents. No doubt they're hoping he'll spearhead the team in these areas while the current management core supplements in the draft and overall vision departments. Whether the Blazers' course is the right one is open to debate. But for what they're trying to do, Olshey is not a bad hire at all.
What do you think? Excited, angry, or just waiting to see? Weigh in below.
--Dave (blazersub@gmail.com)
P.S.A late add from Steve Perrin ofClipsNation, just for us...
Neil is by far the smoothest NBA person I've dealt with. Mind you, I haven't dealt with that many, but the guy is good. He is always on message, he is never tongue-tied. He is terrific communicator. He also works people better than almost anyone I know. You would think he was my best friend to hear him talk to me. Part of it is put on... but part of it is probably real too. He's a super sharp guy, and a super personable guy. And man can he run a press conference.
很难知道如何可持续的他最近的成功sses with the Clippers would have been. He works hard and is smart enough to play the angles. He had the balls to sign Billups when Billups was warning everyone not to. But the Chris Paul deal was more or less "right place right time" and it's not as if he had any other major coups with the Clippers. Caron was a nice enough pickup but is overpaid; he had little choice but to match on DeAndre Jordan, but he's significantly overpaid. Nick Young for nothing was a great pickup, but that deal also feel into his lap. At any rate, one good year isn't exactly a bankable track record -- and his acquisitions in 2010 were Randy Foye, Randy Gomes and Brian Cook, so there's that. But I guarantee you Neil is charming as hell in a job interview and that Paul Allen loved him.