After this last week it's looking a little more likely that Portland will keep it's pick. The Blazers solidified their position by going on a timely 5 game losing skid and are three games behind 13th and three games ahead of 11th with 8 games to go.
The two teams ahead of Portland that Portland could pass would be Milwaukee and Dallas. However, in order for Milwaukee to fall below Portland they would have to fall out of the playoffs where they have a 6 game lead on Philadelphia with 9 games to go. But then Philadelphia, which is the team behind Portland would then pass Portland (by becoming a playoff team) and the Blazers would simply drop to 11th and if Milwaukee fell below them they would go back to 12th.
That leaves Dallas as the only team that could realistically spoil the draft party in Portland.
Here's the current draft order that accounts for the 13 protected picks this year:
Position - Team
1Charlotte Bobcats
2Orlando Magic
3Cleveland Cavaliers
4Phoenix Suns
5Detroit Pistons
6New Orleans Hornets
7萨克拉门托国王s
8Oklahoma City Thunder
9Minnesota Timberwolves
10Washington Wizards
11Philadelphia 76ers
12 *Portland Trail Blazers
13Dallas Mavericks
14 *Phoenix Suns
15Milwaukee Bucks
16Boston Celtics
17Utah Jazz
18Chicago Bulls
19Atlanta Hawks
20 Atlanta Hawks
21 Utah Jazz
22Brooklyn Nets
23Indiana Pacers
24New York Knicks
25Los Angeles Clippers
26Denver Nuggets
27 Minnesota Timberwolves
28 Oklahoma City Thunder
29San Antonio Spurs
30 *克利夫兰骑士队
* Picks that could conceivably still change hands. TheLakersare the key here. If the Lakers finish in the playoffs then they get the 30th pick and Cleveland gets the Lakers pick instead of Phoenix (currently 14th).
The likely possible scenarios for Portland (my approximate odds):
1. Philadelphia passes Portland and Portland does not pass Dallas (30-70). Blazers Finish with 11th pick.
2. Philadelphia passes Portland and Portland passes Dallas (unlikely). Blazers finish with 12th pick.
3. Philadelphia does not pass Portland and Portland does not pass Dallas (60-40). Blazers Finish with 12th pick.
4. Philadelphia does not pass Portland but Portland passes Dallas (10-80). Blazers finish with 13th pick and give it to Charlotte.
The interesting game for Portland coming up will be Dallas on Sunday. If the Blazers lose this game then Portland passing Dallas becomes extremely unlikely. Comparing Portland and Philadelphia's schedule I can imagine a scenario where Philadelphia passes Portland.
Portland: vs Memphis, vs Houston, vs Dallas, vs L.A. Lakers, vs Oklahoma City, @ Denver, @ L.A. Clippers, vs Golden State
Philadelphia: @ Charlotte, @ Atlanta, @ Miami, @ Brooklyn, vs Atlanta, @ Washington, vs Cleveland, @ Detroit, @ Indiana
Dallas: @ Denver, @ Sacramento, @ Portland, vs Phoenix, vs Denver, @ New Orleans, vs Memphis, vs New Orleans
I'm not hoping for the Blazers to lose as much as it simply interesting to follow because of all of the protected pick drama. Here's hoping Dallas makes the playoffs!
