自由球员的拉马库斯·奥尔德里奇（Lamarcus Aldridge）危及什么？

现在已经完成了季节，现在该解决2015年夏季的第一期Portland Trail Blazers：未来LaMarcus Aldridge。7月，奥尔德里奇（Aldridge）将成为一名不受限制的自由球员，能够与他希望的任何团队签约。NBA规则禁止通过合同到期的球员进行最后一刻的交易。开拓者别无选择，只能让他上市，希望他选择与他们在一起。

Most of the discussion thus far has centered around Aldridge's personal decision. Media and fans spent the last 2 weeks deciphering veiled comments and chasing rumors. It's a fruitless pursuit. Only one person gets to make the decision. Nobody else can read his mind. We're not going to know until the choice is made and announced. All the talking in the world won't change that.

我们canabout what's at stake for the Blazers and Aldridge this summer, though. Understanding the environment in which the decision will be made will help us grasp its implications, illuminating the process if not the actual outcome.

Today we're going to examine what's on the table for LaMarcus. Tomorrow we'll look at the Trail Blazers point of view.

What's at Stake for LaMarcus Aldridge

拉马库斯·奥尔德里奇（Lamarcus Aldridge）将于今年夏天满30岁。刚刚完成了他的第9季，他处于职业生涯的巅峰状态。但是您可以从这里看到另一侧。32和33迫在眉睫，很可能会在Aldridge的下一份合同完成之前到达。

阿尔德里奇本赛季的1600万美元薪水是他收到的最大的薪水。鉴于他的作品，波特兰的胜利记录以及他所获得的全国荣誉，阿尔德里奇（Aldridge）努力提高工资。他可能最终在职业生涯中签订了1或2份合同，但他目前将永远没有杠杆作用。他今年夏天做出的决定将使他在余生中做好准备……或者至少要为最终签名从现在起2 - 3年的时间铺平道路。

无论Aldridge倾向于什么合同结构，集体谈判协议都可以使开拓者为他提供比任何其他团队更多的钱。那不会改变。但是，阿尔德里奇的决定并不那么简单，“致力于签署最大的合同要约并在夏天继续前进”。其他三个因素也发挥了作用。

定时

如果Aldridge希望成为冠军队的顶级球员之一，那么他可能有5年的成就。他可能能够在36岁及以后捐款，但他将不再是他的团队的主要重点。

在此期间孟菲斯灰熊系列对波特兰未来的流行评估相对令人沮丧。“开拓者陷入困境”和“奥尔德里奇可能不想成为一支无所事事的球队”变得普遍。尽管鉴于波特兰的陡峭跌倒是可以理解的，但这些评论缺乏观点。

The Trail Blazers franchise reset when布兰登·罗伊（Brandon Roy）andGreg Odenfell to career-ending injuries in 2010 and 2011. Portland missed the playoffs for 2 straight years, picking up达米安·利拉德（Damian Lillard）进行中。新生的阿尔德里奇 - 莱拉德时代的果实一直是一轮胜利Houston Rocketsfollowed by a loss to theSan Antonio Spursin 2014, then a loss to the Memphis Grizzlies this year.

Two years is not enough time for this franchise to get "stuck", nor to judge momentum. A year ago the Blazers were glad just to make it to the playoffs. This year the goals were higher but the team entered the post-season crippled by injuries. Had Wesley Matthews been healthy and had the Blazers faced the达拉斯小牛in the first round, this year's accomplishments probably would have equaled last year's. A 30-8 start to the season portended better than a 1-3 first-round exit.

As we said on本周的播客版本，如果波特兰的2014年和2015年业绩被颠倒了，那么围绕该团队的当前叙述将大大不同。开拓者队在2014年输给灰熊的情况会很好，尤其是涉及伤害。他们仍然可以实现当年达到季后赛的目标。如果他们今年取得了激动人心的第一轮胜利，随后是最终冠军的第二轮损失，每个人现在都会随着西方崛起的团队而谈论他们。“卡住”和“不吸引人”一词不会在词典中。

The last public statement we heard from Aldridge about the Blazers came as he returned from thumb injury in late January. He declined surgery, opting to play out a season which he described as "special". Though further injuries made the gesture moot, his assessment of the team's potential when healthy probably stands.

我们可以相信冠军争夺战在阿尔德里奇的愿望清单上，因为大多数球员都是如此。我们必须谨慎地假设这种愿望会自动排除返回波特兰，无论是经验还是根据阿尔德里奇的估计。我们不知道。我们所知道的是，到目前为止，他的陈述和行动表明了相反。到目前为止，阿尔德里奇不仅相信他的队友，而且公开赞扬和牺牲了他们。

MONEY

The NBA's new broadcast rights deal throws a monkey wrench into Aldridge's decision. We'll look at hard numbers in a separate post, but here's the general lay of the land.

最大合同计算为当前工资上限的百分比。您在您指挥的CAP的比例越大的范围内拥有的几年。

This summer's salary cap won't include the influx of television dollars from the new deal. It'll probably sit between $60-70 million. The cap is projected to rise above $100 million (more than half again the current amount) by 2017.

As a 9-year veteran Aldridge can receive 30% of his team's cap this summer. Once he's served his 10th year that number goes up to 35%.

35% of $100+ million per year in 2017 is a far bigger number than 30% of $60+ million is now. Signing a 2-year deal or a 3-year deal could be attractive to Aldridge under these circumstances.

合同谈判中的“主队”优势在于能够在交易中提供额外的第五年。其他团队只能以最高工资为4年的Aldridge，波特兰可以使其5。其他所有事物相同，这是保证的800万美元合同和100万美元+ 100万美元之间的区别，这很重要。

The impending cap balloon throws this out of whack. By using an early-Bird exception after a 2-year contract an opposing team could roughly equal Portland's $100+ million max offer to Aldridge in 4 years, not 5. A full Bird exception after a 3-year contract could set him up for incredible money. The Blazers' 5-year "max" offer--which is absolutely the best they can do this year--isn't actually the max Aldridge can earn anymore.

Rest assured, Portland could still offer more money than anyone if they, too, proposed a short-term contract and then re-signed him with their own Bird Rights. If Aldridge wants the absolute most money, Portland is the destination.

但是，如果今年的5年，波特兰的Max-Monnoy报价对Aldridge来说足够好，因此，他现在可以合理地期望在任何拥有CAP空间的团队的较短时间内，今年夏天签下他。正如Cap Guru讲故事的人所说，波特兰的“家庭优势”报价不再是优势，如果Aldridge签署了它，它是“家庭折扣”。

阿尔德里奇（Aldridge）将需要平衡受伤的风险和他的预计收入能力，在又有2个赛季后，与较短的合同的潜在经济收益。随着业主和球员准备为美元而战，他还需要在2017年对CBA的改变保持警惕。但是，如果他倾向于另一支球队，那么今年该决定的财务影响要比电视交易签署之前要容易得多。

在财务上，这是一个全新的世界。奥尔德里奇（Aldridge）和他的代理商必须决定如何最好地利用它。

NEGOTIATING POWER

无论阿尔德里奇的想法或感觉如何，揭示偏好 - 独自一人的承诺 - 在所有报价上都在桌上都是不好的商业决定。如果这一刻，拉马库斯·奥尔德里奇（Lamarcus Aldridge）在他的小便chee里戴着开拓者的徽标，他的经纪人仍然会告诉他完全妈妈对自己的欲望保持妈妈，他会成为一个傻瓜。

如果开拓者知道阿尔德里奇（Aldridge）致力于终身致力于他们，那么他们最大化他的交易的动机将减少。该团队正在考虑今年重新签署3个首发球员，另一个是重新签约，并在此过程中延长了利拉德的巨额资金。他们节省的每一角钱都可以帮助他们获得帽子的灵活性，避免豪华税和底线。奥尔德里奇（Aldridge）不能冒险在收入能力的顶峰时陷入削减成本措施。

Voicing a preference for Portland would also offer disincentive to other teams who might make an offer. Value gets determined when people bid for your services. Fewer bids means less demand, less basis upon which to judge value.

即使Aldridge致力于留在波特兰，这也是如此。但是，尽管开拓者球迷不想承认，但他可能不确定。即使波特兰是他的选择之一，阿尔德里奇也可能想在确定草地最绿的地方之前看到所有领域。你不是在他的位置吗？如果是这样，您需要保持静止，直到所有报价都提出，甚至暗示了承诺。

无论他问什么问题，阿尔德里奇在此过程的早期都不会表达偏好……至少如果他很聪明。对他来说，优势为零，潜在的成本很高。这意味着波特兰的球迷将需要习惯于听到沉默而不将其解释为厄运。

但沉默并不意味着奥尔德里奇住either. Being non-committal means absolutely nothing except Aldridge is smart enough not to short-circuit a once-in-a-lifetime process upon which his financial future hangs just so we can all feel better.

Or worse.

取决于。

明天：开拓者队有什么危险...

And believe me, you don't want to miss that. Call your friends and neighbors and buckle...the heck...up.

- dave blazersub@gmail.com /@DaveDeckard/@BlazersEdge