比较埃德·戴维斯（Ed Davis）和特里斯坦·汤普森（Tristan Thompson）的成本和生产

今年夏天早些时候的Portland Trail Blazerssigned埃德·戴维斯（Ed Davis）to a 3-year contract worth $20 million. Meanwhile, in Cleveland,特里斯坦·汤普森（Tristan Thompson）has demanded a 3-year, $53 million contract from theCavaliers。汤普森可能会以不到5300万美元的价格定下来，但他的最终薪水几乎肯定会超过2,000万美元的戴维斯在波特兰的收入的两倍以上。

So, who would you rather have: Ed Davis for $20 million or Tristan Thompson for $40+ million?

On the surface, the answer may seem obvious - Thompson is a rising potential star while Davis was practically run out of Memphis and played for a minimum contract last season. The NBA is a star-based league so teams, especially contenders, should pay the players who have star potential.

The problem with that logic is that Davis and Thompson are remarkably similar on the court, despite the differences in how they're perceived and paid. Both players excel at scoring around the rim and at rebounding, but cannot hit a jump shot. They both struggle as primary "backstops" on defense, but use their athleticism and mobility to bother opposing players in open space.

Examining their traditional statistics from last season highlights the similarities between the two players. Here are their per game numbers:

Davis was a worse free throw shooter but had a substantial lead in assists and blocks. The two players were nearly identical in all other categories.

Thompson did play about three and a half more minutes per game than Davis, though, so these stats may not be capturing differences in their true on-court production. To normalize for minutes played, consider per 36 minute stats:

Note: Per 36 numbers are limited in utility when comparing players who play short minutes in a reserve role as the level of production is generally not sustainable. Thomas Robinson's 19.6 points,17.8 rebounds, and 7.6 fouls per 36 minutes during the 2013-2014 season being a classic example. But Davis and Thompson both saw significant playing time and were deployed regularly as part of their teams' primary rotations so there should be sufficient common ground to use per-36 numbers for comparison.

In this case, Davis averaged 1.4 more points, one more defensive rebound, three times as many assists, and almost twice as many steals and blocks as Thompson. For per minute production, Davis has a clear slight advantage.

Davis and Thompson are similar not just in the total stats they produce, but also in how they're producing. Consider their scoring "heat charts," representing where they make the most field goals:

戴维斯（source):

Thompson (source):

The heat charts are remarkably similar; both players struggle to convert shots further than five feet from the basket. Their field goal percentages are also almost identical for every distance, with each player shooting over 65% at the rim and then plummeting to under 40% if they step away from the basket. Interestingly, Thompson only shot 33% on tip-ins, while Davis shot 55%. Thompson is a slightly better offensive rebounder, according to the numbers, but that advantage seems to be mitigated by an inability to convert tips on missed shots. In short, the shot charts and numbers suggest that they are virtually identical as offensive players.

接下来，考虑高级统计：

对于这些数据,戴维斯打败了汤普森领先in virtually every category. Notably, his overall lead in production is captured by a higher PER, while leads in TRB%, AST%, STL%, and BLK% suggest that Davis is having a more tangible impact on games than Thompson.

The box plus/minus stats are also heavily in Davis' favor. These numbers are especially relevant as they control for the quality of team, unlike traditional plus/minus. In other words, Davis would have a poor traditional plus/minus because theLakerswere not very good, but box plus/minus adjusts for team success and converts to a per 100 possessions scale so Thompson and Davis can be fairly compared despite the different success level of their teams. Remarkably, Thompson has negative scores suggesting that his contribution is actually worse than an average player, while Davis has a net positive 6.0!

谁再次以5300万美元的价格进行谈判？

尽管框Plus/Minus的差异有所不同，但它们确实为防守球队填补了类似的角色，并且似乎同样有效。具体来说，戴维斯缺乏力量，并依靠敏捷性来使自己在防守中广为人知。他可以在低位上被压倒，但是当他出门在太空中并且可以面对进攻球员时，他的表现就足够了。他还有一个鼻子来寻找弱方面。这是孟菲斯中一些技能的汇编：

Simlarly，克利夫兰（Cleveland）利用汤普森（Thompson）的运动能力和长度来破坏挑选和滚动，或者转向对方的外围球员。尽管戴维斯的主要防守弱点正在捍卫邮局，但汤普森被要求成为主要边缘保护者时挣扎。在可能的情况下，骑士通过依靠蒂莫菲·莫兹戈夫（Timofey Mozgov）捍卫车道来掩盖这一弱点。

Statistically, both players haveallowed opponents to shoot a relatively high percentage at the rim但是，汤普森在巡回赛上只放弃了每场比赛的0.68分，而戴维斯放弃了.95。戴维斯每场比赛的平均盖帽和抢断都大大增加，但这些数字可能是欺骗的。戴维斯经常是湖人的主要弱点和/或帮助后卫，而骑士则依靠莫兹戈夫（Mozgov）进行更深入的保护，因此戴维斯（Davis）的块数字可能被略微夸大了。同样，戴维斯的许多抢断是在他所在地区通过糟糕的传球或击球失误创造出松散的球，而不是坚实的防守打球，这是喧嚣的结果。

In summary, empirical analyses of the statistics and a limited eye test do not reveal any decisive differences between Davis and Thompson. Davis does have the lead with some advanced stats, but an eye test of their style of play suggests that those numbers may be exaggerated by the roles the two play for their teams.

没有明确的场边difference to explain the salary disparity, there must be some intangible explanation for the salary difference between Davis and Thompson. One possible key difference is the perception of the development of the two players. Thompson came into the NBA as a raw but athletic project player. Since his rookie season he has made strides by maintaining elite rebounding skills, while significantly improving his ability to finish around the basket and play defense. Thus, the narrative around Thompson is that he is a hard worker who has improved his game significantly.

Davis, on the other hand, has garnered a reputation as a player who has not significantly improved since being drafted. As recently as one season ago,h进攻技巧与加入联盟时基本相同，而且他并没有为自己的框架增添很多力量。Reports that“教练曾质疑他的智商和运动”have also dogged Davis and may have led to hesitancy on the part of GMs to sign him.

汤普森（Thompson）和戴维斯（Davis）在不同的情况下也参加了比赛，这可能影响了他们的观看方式。NBA成功的一个经常被忽视的方面是，年轻球员和球队之间的好坏都可以对他的职业生涯产生好事或坏事的影响。拉琼·隆多（Rajon RondoDoc Riversand Boston, orBrandon Jennings' pre-injury ascension last season in Detroit both illustrate that point.

In a way, Thompson hit the circumstances jackpot when he was drafted by Cleveland. Early in his career the Cavs were not a good team and were able to play Thompson big minutes as the only notable players in front of him were long-in-the-toothAntawn Jamison，永久受伤Anderson Varejao, and, briefly, Andrew Bynum. When Lebron James returned to Cleveland Thompson's skills at cleaning up rebounds and acting as an offensive bailout when James is double teamed were a perfect fit. As noted above, Thompson's defensive skills also mesh well with Mozgov and James. Lastly, the Cavs are serious championship contenders; most teams cannot afford to pay $10 million+ to a player who just averaged 8/8 for a season, but the Cavaliers are already over the salary cap and Thompson may be the piece that propels them to a championship, theoretically justifying his overpayment.

另一方面，戴维斯最初是由Toronto Raptorsin 2010. He saw his first major opportunity in 2012 when he was asked to assume the starting position vacated by an injured Andrea Bargnani. Despite playing the best basketball of his career as a starter, he was quickly traded to Memphis forRudy Gay。The trade left Davis temporarily stunned, and he struggled to find consistent playing time for theGrizzliesbehind veterans Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. After a tenure in Memphis best described as"disappointing,"戴维斯与湖人签约with the hope of earning more playing time.Davis did perform well in Los Angeles and reportedly wanted to return, but the Lakers preferred to keep their salary cap space intact rather than re-signing him early in the free agency period. Suffice it to say, Davis has not found a solid niche since being traded from Toronto.

But that may change for Davis now that he is in Portland; His strengths will potentially pair well with Meyers Leonard's skills, and he may also be able to fill some of the holes left by Robin Lopez. The hope for both parties is that Davis' inside scoring, rebounding, and length/energy/hustle on defense will help him find a home with the Blazers. Meanwhile, Thompson will continue to fill holes around James, Mozgov, andKyrie Irving他的内部得分，重做和长度/能量/喧嚣在防守方面。在许多方面，尽管他们的球队渴望有很大的愿望，但汤普森和戴维斯很可能会在2015-16赛季继续成为彼此的碳副本。除了一份副本将花费5000万美元，另一副副本将花费2000万美元。

h/t to Blazer's Edge reader Ecsa for pointing out this similarityin a fanshot.Grantland's Zach Lowe简要比较汤普森和戴维斯今年4月也是如此；该列也在本文早期链接。