2016 was a summer like no other for the NBA. Armed with pockets full of funny money, all hell broke loose. The 2016 free agent class was considered to be relatively weak, especially compared to the bonanza coming next summer. Players who will be getting $18 million+ next year include such mega-stars as Chandler Parsons, Harrison Barnes, Nic Batuum, Ryan Anderson, Luol Deng and of course, Portland’s own Alan Crabbe. What odds would you give that even one of these players makes the All-Star team this season? Here are some of the things we learned or confirmed in the process:
The Class of 2016 Got RICH! But No One Else Will!The NBA ADDED $720 million in new money into player salaries this summer, then said that only 25% of the players could have that money. Did teams act cautiously? Hell No! They spent like drunken sailors on their first night in port. They spent and spent and spent. When the NBA announced that the average player salary went from $6 million to $8 million, you could assume that everyone got a 1/3 raise. But the whole raise went to the Class of 2016.
Next year the NBA will add another $240 million, enough for a stronger free agent class in 2017 to get raises for some but not all. When the cap goes flat (or even down) in 2018 & 2019, those free agents will hit a financial wall. When Isaiah Thomas says that they better back up the Brinks truck in 2018, the players will find out that the truck is empty.
NBA Labor Dispute: The Owners are going to Blame Greedy Players for the Disruption. Already there are some hints at the attack: The players union is at fault for not accepting "smoothing" of the huge revenue increases. Zach Lowe’s recent article on Winners/Losers from Free Agency on ESPN gives a slight nod at the owners but then blames the players for failing to agree to ease in the huge increases. NO ONE HELD A GUN TO THE OWNERS’ HEADS AND FORCED THEM TO TAKE A FRONT-LOADED TV CONTRACT. They soaked up the money like pigs at the trough and now want to blame the union for not cleaning up their mess. It will get ugly.
The Market Set Itself:It took $60-75 million to separate a decent free agent from his team. Some players were just gone. But among the players who could have stayed or left we have:
Mahimi (Wiz) and Mozgov (LAL) 4 years/$64
Turner (Por) and Biyombo (Orl) 4 years/$70
Noah (NYK) and Deng (LAL) 4 years/$72
Anderson (Hou) 4 years/$80
The Blazers were among the teams that targeted sub-max players and paid a premium to sign them. You can argue that these are overpays, but you often have to rock their world to get them to move.
The One Thing That Went Wrong: Mega-Stars are worth WAY more than their cap. There are only a couple of players who change the NBA landscape with their choice. LeBron James is one. The only other is Kevin Durant (Would a Steph Curry signing automatically create a contender? I think not.). If KD had signed with Boston it would have been seen as the revival of a once-great NBA city. Everyone would have been satisfied. If he had stayed in OKC, it would have been business as usual. Even a signing with the Spurs might have been OK. But Durant opts to join the most fun team in creation and the system is broken. There was no "discounts" or "shenanigans" that got KD to the Warriors. It was a logical choice by him in a crazy market and we now have a Super Team. It will be a ratings bonanza, but suggests a competitive disaster.
Free Agents Destination Franchises:The "Haves" v. the "Have-Nots". BEdge readers are convinced of one thing: Portland is one of those outlier franchises that just can’t attract free agents. Geography, culture, taxes, size and lots of other factors are mentioned. We are cursed like nobody else. The problem with this thinking is that there are about 25 other franchises who feel the same way. Free agents actually were dispersed among numerous teams. Quick: name the franchises that just soak up the top free agents. How did they do?
LA Lakers: The original Hollywood destination had to pay top dollar to lure Mozgav and Deng to Tinseltown.
LA Clippers: Attracted nobody, lost ½ year rental Jeff Green and had to pay a pretty penny to hold on to Rivers and Crawford.
NY Knicks: Had a successful free agency, but only because they made a trade first to bet on Derick Rose’s knees.
Houston: The Rockets over the last several years have lured free agents and did manage to get 2 players that were pursued by others: Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. Not A-Listers but not bad.
Miami: Held on to Whiteside but lost Deng and Wade.
The point is this: Golden State is now a free agent destination because they have a super team. San Antonio attracted Aldridge last year and Gasol this summer because they have a super team. Up and coming franchises like Portland and Toronto need not apply. Win first and then (maybe) they will come. Top free agents can go anywhere, but they crave a chance at success. Who knew 5 years ago that Cleveland/GS would threaten to be a Groundhog Day NBA Final?
The Biggest Free Agent Attraction:Home Court. Half of the top free agents simply chose to stay at home and re-sign with their existing team. This is how it should work.
Teams took Different Approaches. Every team had a plan for this crazy summer. Some succeeded, some adjusted on the fly, and some flopped. Look at the Northwest Division and see how things have changed (or not):
Utah: Felt like this was a time to add veterans to go for it. Traded for George Hill, added Joe Johnson for a reasonable amount and then jumped on Boris Diaw when the Spurs had to clear space.
OKC: Sam Presti is a great GM. But this franchise seems in shell shock as they decide to go all in on Westbrook or to move on. They made a bold trade before free agency; once they lost KD they shut it down.
Denver: Denver took a few flyers, but did not have a realistic shot. They remain essentially unchanged.
明尼苏达州:我们与新教练和管理和一吨of young talent, this was not the summer to make big changes. Minnesota waited for the bargain basement and had a sneaky good summer with Cole Aldridge 3yr/$22, Brandon Rush 1/$5 and Jordan Hill 2/8.
Portland: Got nosed out by Memphis on Parsons. Never had a shot at the big centers, but were at least in the hunt on Gasol. Portland got the Plan B wing they wanted by spending the money (Turner), and then got a defensive center with bad knees for cheap (Ezeli). The Blazers fought a rear guard action on their own free agents (Crabbe and Leonard) as well. There goal was "assets" and they got it.
Quick Hitters:
Biggest Free Agent Shock: Dwayne Wade. Pat Riley was so interested in avoiding getting "Kobe’d" that he got Waded instead. Not so sure that in the grand scheme of things he is that upset as he looks toward 2017, but if he had known the result he would have made the divorce quicker and nastier, so he could have made a move this summer. Caveat to Wade and others: Never give up money hoping they will make it up to you. They won’t!
Player who would have been forgiven if he had rescinded:Hassam Whiteside stayed home only to see Wade fly the coop. Given any slight push the Heat may go full tank for a year, before looking to add again next summer. Pick and Dunk is not as easy when you have no teammates.
The Nets Made some Good Bets but Lost (Again):First, there should be a Billy King corollary to the Stepien rule: No 1st round swaps either. Imagine rooting for a team that is tanking as badly as the 76ers but won’t see their own #1 pick until 2019. AAAARGH! Sean Marks took 2 calculated gambles. If Miami had re-signed Wade the Nets probably made Tyler Johnson’s new contract just poison enough that the Heat wouldn’t match. If Portland had succeeded with Parsons or Gasol, they might have been too cap squeezed to take another bite of the Crabbe-Apple. They were 2 good efforts to get some young talent to a terrible roster and they failed.
Most Intriguing Free Agent: 2 years ago he was a franchise changer. Now he is a class clown in a league that no longer values big men. Dwight Howard on a good, well-coached functioning team may be the last chance to save a career in a tailspin.
Possible Golden State Kryptonite:They need Marc Gasol to regain full strength in his foot. They really need the Chandler Parson max contract to result in a big year. If healthy, the grind it out Grizz might be just the team to blunt the Warrior’s march to immortality.
The gang who can’t shoot straight: The Bulls paid big bucks to add Rondo and Wade. It’s flashy, but did they realize that the trend is toward more 3 point shooting?
The Zen-Master woke up: They are not a championship contender and may not be any good at all. But by trading for Rose, and then adding Noah, Courtney Lee and Jennings the Knicks are a whole lot more interesting. How did they getting Jennings for 1yr/$5 so early in the process? Anthony and Porzingis should have some fun and might even have enough to make the Knicks attractive in 2017.
Blazer fans ran the gamut of emotions over the last several weeks. Most ended up with smiles on their faces from the free agent extravaganza. Now Portland has a roster (over)full of assets. ON TO THE TRADES!
