The Meyers Leonard Effect on the Portland Trail Blazers

To sayMeyers Leonard是一个偏振图Trail Blazersfan is like stating that water is wet.

"He's too soft! He needs a post game and a nasty streak. It's been four years and we still don't know what he can do!"

"He's a unicorn sent to us by the Basketball Gods! He's 7-feet tall with a pure stroke and he can guard the best bigs in the league! He's only 24 years old, he's just scratching the surface."

既不完全是错的,也不做tally right. About the only thing that's consistent here is that Leonard is indeed 24 years old and he has been in the league for four years. Beyond that, it's a matter of perspective. So, let's take that and see if we can dissect what Meyers means to this team going forward.

Leonard is a Shooter

Before we dive in let's cover a very basic point right off the bat. Meyers Leonard can shoot the rock. Period. End of story. While we don't need to anoint him as the 50/40/90 7-footer, he's proven over the course of 2000-plus NBA minutes that he can shoot effectively from the rim to beyond the 3-point line. You can ask him to develop a post game. You can ask him to not pump fake. But saying he needs to stay inside and play like a traditional center just shouldn't be a thing. This isn't some grand announcement. In fact, as you're reading this you're probably thinking, "yeah, no kidding" but you'd be surprised how often I hear that Leonard needs to stop shooting.

With that in mind, Meyers can take all the catch and shoot opportunities he would like.

(Note: all data collected and displayed here is from November 28, 2015 - March 14, 2016. This is the time period where Meyers was deemed "healthy" and gives a large enough sample size from which we can make somewhat conclusive deductions and inferences.)

According to Synergy Sports data, Leonard took more shots in the catch and shoot per minute on the floor than all but four qualified players. That group includedKlay Thompson, JJ Redick, Dirk Nowtizki, and Mirza Teletovic. Leonard shot better from the field in the catch & shoot than all but Redick in that group, arguably the purest shooter not namedStephen Curryin the league.

So Leonard takes and makes shots in the catch and shoot. The good thing here is that Leonard knows that's what he's good at and that's where he gets the vast majority of his looks.Player tracking datahas him taking over 67 percent of his shots in the catch and shoot. Where he gets the next biggest chunk of his shots is inside 10 feet.

This is clearly a point of contention for a lot of Blazers fans. There is a loud contingent that really wants Leonard to develop a post game. Adding a move and a counter move that he can go do when teams try to switch smaller players onto him absolutely makes sense. Asking him to be as effective or efficient as the premier bigs in the league does not.

Inside 10 feet Leonard shot over 54 percent. Again, Leonard has shown the ability or capacity to take and make shots. Leonard, in a very small sample, showed he could knock down the hook shot- connecting on 13 of 19 last season. While that points to some elegant touch, his ability to finish around the rim, particularly on layups, is a staggeringly low 41.7 percent. For someone who has shown so much touch with the ball that jumps off the page and screams problems.

Much has been made about Leonard looking lost at times defensively. On the offensive end that doesn't pop up all that often, but it does seem to rear its ugly head when Leonard finds himself at or near the rim. Which is something that's really strange considering he was a traditional big in college.

Leonard's runner, floater, turnaround, and fade away all show as bright lights of hope simply because he was so effective with those shots. Again, it's only hope due to the small sample size, but hope nonetheless.

The Leonard Effect

Going into next year, Leonard has the security of a brand new 4-year, $41-million deal. What he doesn't have is all the pomp and circumstance coming off a surprising run in the playoffs against the孟菲斯灰熊that saw him pegged as one of the "Big 3" going forward.

With that, Leonard isn't given the benefit of the doubt or the guarantee of minutes that he started with last season. Maybe that helps him. Maybe not. The weight - the burden - of that may have been too much for him coming into the season without a new contract and the list of injuries he kept hidden away.

The Leonard effect, though - if you can believe or trust the data from last season - shows that the Blazers were a better team with him on the floor:

The raw on/off numbers for Leonard show that Portland as a team shoots better, rebounds better, generates more assists, turns the ball over less, and has a better offensive rating with the big man on the floor. There are some negatives here as well - Portland blocks fewer shots and generates fewer turnovers, while allowing opponents to secure more defensive rebounds.

The basics here: Leonard increases the offense, doesn't crash the offensive boards all that well and the extra plays - steals, blocks, etc. aren't as common an occurrence with him on the floor.

To take a deeper dive, let's visit some 5-man line up data. This has to be taken with a grain of salt because there are so many variables at play. Opponent, points up vs. points down and time and situation are just a few factors to take into consideration. However, when there's a preponderance of data you have to at least analyze it and see what it has to offer:

The two huge takeaways for me were how well the team shot when a combination ofAl-Farouq aminu, Leonard, and CJ McCollum were on the floor together and the counter point: How poorly the team shot comparatively when Leonard,Maurice Harkless和德戴维斯were on the floor together.

这里有一些关于最后一组的东西。直到季节晚了，特别是在伦纳德下来之后，我们看到了黑暗的上升，并在角上采取起跑。曾经哈克斯有稳定的分钟，就像伦纳德一样，他更好地发挥了更好，更符合。

我们在这里看到的是，总的来说，在法庭上有伦纳德确实浮现了燃烧者的罪行。总共总团队从场地射出45.5％，与地板上的伦纳德的距离距离38.3％。两者都高于球队的赛季平均值。挖掘甚至更深，季节上的燃烧器占据了.593每分钟三个指针（大致），并与伦纳德在地板上，开拓者的开拓者将其上升到.65每分钟三分球。基本上，当Leonard扮演时，燃烧器采取并制作更多的3个尖。

This in a nutshell is the Leonard Effect.

It's not just that Leonard himself can knock down the three ball. It's the space he generates for his teammates. The mere threat of him out there causes the defense to shift in ways they almost never have to.

There aren't many bigs that are comfortable defending above that 3-point line. Some have speculated that opposing teams should and will counter this by switching a smaller player onto Leonard. Okay, that's fine. Who's now covering the other four guys on the court? Where's the mismatch? That's how theNBA Finalswent down. Both teams ran pick-and-rolls until they got the switch they wanted. If teams do that with Leonard preemptively on that end, it makes rotations that much harder, and that much more staggered. Which is why you probably haven't seen teams employ that strategy yet.

Meyers Leonard This Year and Beyond

Heading into the 2016-17 season what should fans expect of Leonard? Outside the acquisitions ofEvan Turner和Festus Ezeli., that's arguably one of the biggest question marks facing the Blazers. What does a reasonable season for Leonard look like? Last year he put together eight points and five rebounds on 45 percent shooting from the floor at 38 percent from distance. His Per-36 numbers were 13 points and eight rebounds. If Leonard can put together 10+ points and 6+ rebounds per game while maintaining his shooting prowess, that sounds like a solid growth year.

Defensively, if Leonard can cut down on some of the rudimentary mistakes while maintaining his ability to stymie the likes ofDeMarcus Cousins和defend the rim without fouling, again that's a solid amount of growth.

对于伦纳德，我争辩说，今年在波特兰的巨大巨大。燃烧者在不久的将来看过巩固贸易。如果他展示他可以成为地板两端的贡献者，保持健康，并继续加入他的游戏，然后他在波特兰的时间可以继续进行可预见的未来。

If not, he may be shipped out in a deal where the receiving team sees him as still a potential-laden big that they're willing to take a chance on. There's certainly options in between success and trade bait, it just feels like those are the most logical points of conclusion based on a number of factors.

What does a successful season for Meyers Leonard look like for you? Where do you see him making the biggest leap or the longest fall? Let us know below in the comments!