This is not a rant against Olshey; I think it’s patently obvious that he has been a very good GM. His hit ratio on acquired players isn’t quite 100%, but it’s pretty darn good.

But this is precisely why it’s so weird to see how many overrated/overpaid big men Olshey has been reported to have pursued only for the Blazers to miss out (fortunately). Gasol is likely to be next in a line that has been preceded by Kanter, Monroe, Hawes, and Hibbert. To be fair, it was perfectly defensible to sign Hibbert to that offer sheet at that time; Indiana’s defense was historically great and keen observers credited much of that to Hibbert’s verticality.

Nevertheless, depending on how you count it, 4 or 5 fortunate misses from an otherwise competent GM starts to look less like a fluke. What it does look like is a way to do agents a favor by providing them with the pseudo-leverage they need to maximize their clients’ earnings [all while adding a bit of fat to your rivals’ cap sheets].

Not trying to suggest Olshey is a Machiavellian genius, but it is a good reminder that not every report of interest from the Blazers is likely to be sincere, occasionally even when an offer sheet is signed. Sometimes such reports are really the result of agents in search of negotiating power. Chandler Parsons was another good example and one I was skeptical of at the time it was first reported (especially when it comes with Woj adding such flowery praise). Dan Fegan, who represents Parsons (and Harkless FWIW), is notorious for pulling all sorts of shenanigans.

Or maybe the story is pretty simple: Olshey has just been really lucky and is a poor/mediocre evaluator of big men.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯