Jusuf Nurkic Scouting Report

Jusuf Nurkic doesn’t make sense. He has so many attributes that seemingly can’t fit into the same player. I don’t know what to make of him—it’s like someone took one of Russell Westbrook’s outfits and made it into a basketball player.

“好了,切好的shirt is kinda cool, and I dig the high tops, but how did those floral-patterned, spandex bell bottoms make it into the ensemble?”

That’s how I felt while watching film of Nurkic. A lot of his play is intriguing but there are certain things that seem so absurdly out of place. If nothing else, he’s a player full of contradictions.

那个男人戴着舞者的脚鞋

Right off the bat, Nurkic is a very large man. Perhaps not as massive as his mythical father, but he’s certainly one of the largest humans in the NBA. Which is what makes his overall quickness seem impossible. You look at his top half and think “Young Robin Lopez” but then you look down and his feet are moving more like Tristan Thompson’s.

当他在拾取和卷中的球处理时，这尤其明显。丹佛正在使用一个保守的方案，大家在我看的所有游戏中丢回了，但Nurkic没有问题，将球保持在前面。他甚至有速度赶上钥匙上运球并恢复到传球上的大人物。不是很多大型可以覆盖球和相同的比赛。坦率地说，他到了他不应该掌握他的规模的地方。

You watch him move, salivating over all the fast-twitch muscles in his legs, realize that’s a little creepy, and then get prepared to jump out of your seat as he shoots down the lane for a dunk. Only, Nurkic barely gets off the ground. All you’re left feeling is confused and a little disappointed. And not in a “the NBA is full of crazy athletes and my perspective is so skewed that I scoff at any vertical less than 40 inches” kind of way. It’s more like an “Uhh...I’m actually pretty sure I can jump higher than that.” I was so curious that I checked. Sure enough, my max vertical in high school was a few inches bigger than the 23 inches he recorded at the 2013 Eurocamp. (Yes, he’s quite literally twice my size, but c’mon and just let me have this one).

他缺乏垂直爆炸性会产生一些真正的问题。通常，那些车道到篮子里，玩家必须完成捍卫者。Nurkic挣扎着。如果他能够干净地到达边缘或找到一个围绕后卫的角度，他是金色的。如果所有空间蒸发，他在玩家之间夹着，他被迫从一个奇怪的角度翻转球。

Those lead feet go a long way towards explaining his low shooting percentages. For all Nurkic’s physical gifts, he struggles to finish near the rim, shooting 56 percent within three feet over his career. That’s pretty pedestrian for a man of his size and it’s really his only path to becoming an efficient offensive player. He doesn’t have much of a jumper so any significant impact will have to come inside.

A Bruiser Who Keeps Losing Physical Battles

Nurkic喜欢打人。在几个进攻篮板上，当我看着他的游戏录像带时，他几乎看着轮辋。他只是盯着他的后卫，降低了他的肩膀，并试图向轮缘推动他。通常，他接近，将一个简单的盒子变成了50-50球。这也是Deandre Jordan和Tristan Thompson喜欢的特殊篮板手。差异是，这两个人通常赢得那些50-50个球。Nukic，钉在地上，没有。

That’s not to say he’s a bad rebounder. Jusuf still ranks in the top 30, but his propensity to go straight to the bull rush doesn’t maximize his opportunities. Given his quickness, he’d be much better served to try and beat guys to a spot and control space, more like Ed Davis or Kevin Love. And that’s before factoring in all of the cheap fouls he picks up going for offensive boards.

Being physical but not effective would also be an apt description of Nurkic’s screen setting. When learning how to screen, wanting to get in people’s way is perhaps the first step, but it’s certainly not the last. Nurkic doesn’t grasp the nuances, timing, or positioning necessary to get his teammates open. That might be expected given his age and how late he started playing basketball. What’s not expected is how often he whiffs on screens completely. Multiple times Nurkic was so far out of position that he never made contact. Some of that falls on Denver’s inexperienced guards but it’s strange that someone so big and so physical would struggle to set a basic screen.

经验丰富的感觉,新秀的步伐

For all of Nurkic’s raw energy, he has a surprising feel for several parts of the game. His happy feet aren’t zero or one hundred like most rookies. He knows how to manage space on both the offensive and defensive end.

Pick-and-rolls require the big to make himself available. Sometimes that means diving to the rim as fast as humanly possible to catch defenders out of position. Sometimes that means sliding into a passing lane. Sometimes that means waiting for the guard to dribble away from the action to open up more space. Nurkic reads most of these situations. He’s in the 73rd percentile in Points per Possession as the Roll Man, according to stats.NBA.com. For perspective, Mason Plumlee was in the 23rd percentile. That’s a little overstated because it doesn’t take into account all the brilliant passes Plumlee made out to the perimeter but it’s striking nonetheless.

On defense, knowing where to be is often more important than physical gifts. Nurkic makes a number of rookie mistakes and can struggle to keep track of everything. However, when the play is right in front of him, he positions himself well. Multiple times, Nurkic navigated the weird space between helping corral the ball handler in a pick-and-roll and defending the roll man. He avoided committing to either player, prevented the guard from getting to the rim, and deflected or stole the pass. This ability to manage multiple responsibilities is something Portland has been sorely missing since the departure of LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez.

Nurkic seems to be a natural pick-and-roll defender, although his numbers have been inconsistent with small sample sizes. Last year, he ranked in the 75th percentile defending the Roll Man. This year, he’s down to the 23rd percentile. That’s a major drop, but because of injuries and a lack of playing time, he defended less than 30 possessions both years. Play type data wasn’t published for his rookie season so we don’t have much to go on statistically.

但统计数据确实支持他作为加里姆保护人的声誉。尼龙微积分用于估计由竞争镜头保存的球员在轮辋上省多少点。Nukic在每36分钟节省的调整点中排名第14，突然弯曲肘部。他可能不是精英，但这对新秀来说是一个令人难以置信的开始。

他还知道如何在他们去拍摄时进入球员的空间。这通常比从远处的长度争夺比较更有效。除非有人像Anthony Davis或Rudy Gobert这样绑架臂，否则它可能相当容易忽略一只手。当一个280磅磅的人挤你你时，重点焦点要更难以置信。

这增加了污垢的风险，但Nurkic似乎相当擅长避免射击犯规。自从他的新秀一年以来，他将他的罚球减少了大约一半，并保持垂直性。他不会跳或阻挡很多镜头，但他的存在似乎阻止人们攻击篮筐。当你那么大时，你真的不需要跳过射门。

Most of his fouls were silly in the games I watched. He’ll reach when he doesn’t need to or bull rush for a rebound he has no chance of getting. If he can cut these down, he should have no problem staying on the court.

假设他并没有被纯粹的犯规所取消资格。你认为这将是一个安全的假设，但与波斯尼亚野兽没有那么多。一旦他在手中拿着球，那就是那些时机和感觉才能脱颖而飞。他会从奇怪的角度射击镜头。他会尝试穿越不在那里的通行证。太过频繁，他桶前方，而不是等待被捍卫者的节拍。所有这一切都会导致大量的犯规和荒谬的错误。

A Scorer at Heart, An Enforcer By Training

This entire profile screams “Blue Collar Big Man” who does the dirty work that’s so important to winning. These types of players rarely get the ball, still play hard on defense, and generally sacrifice their own stats for the good of the team.

But Nurkic seems to love his back-to-the-basket game. Over 30 percent of his possessions have been post-ups the last two seasons, an absolutely huge number. For reference, Nurkic is one of three players posting up more frequently than LaMarcus Aldridge this season. That’s a major problem because he’s currently scoring in the 13th percentile in an already inefficient category.

Nurkic can’t figure out what speed he wants to go, undermining his post-up game. He’ll either go too fast and rush his shot or go too slow and let the defense get set. Either way, the result is typically either an out of control layup, a steal, or an offensive foul. To be fair, he’s shown flashes and his back-to-the-basket game was supposed to be a strength coming into the league. When he can get all the way to the rim or spin for a quick drop-step he looks impressive. But against NBA-caliber centers who are of similar size, those opportunities are few and far between.

削减这些戏剧将是2017年大Jusuf实验中首批寻找的东西之一。他的使用百分比为22.5让他今年为中心前15名，坦率地说，这是一场灾难。On / Off Numbers是嘈杂的，但Nurkic是漂亮的眼球。当Jusuf扮演时，丹佛是联盟中的第二个最佳罪行。在现代的NBA中，通过低效的后起来，它根本不可能食用宝贵的财产。

The Contradictions Fit

A man of many contradictions may have found a home on a roster with so many conflicting pieces. Luckily for both sides, a lot of those rough edges fit together.

For Nurkic, he needs more space in the lane so he won’t be forced to finish over defenders. He also needs to focus on the little things and put his post-up game on the back burner. Some All-Star guards that could get him easy shots wouldn’t hurt either. The Blazers can offer all those things.

波特兰需要在边缘附近的大型物理存在。他们还需要一个可以在空间中包含球的中心，而他们的守卫挣扎越过屏幕。在冒犯时，他们希望如果防御试图切换，他们希望有人可以在拾取和滚动中茁壮得分，并且如果尝试切换，则会降低。但如果他们没有足够的帖子，他们不希望有人会噘嘴。如果这听起来像一个更敏捷的，更加动态的罗宾洛佩兹，我会说你是对的。这正是Nurkic可能的。

Right now, Jusuf seems more like Sideshow Bob. He’s shown flashes of brilliance but many of his decisions appear selfish and too much of his game feels like walking into a rake. There’s a lot contact, but Nurkic is the one that ends up disoriented. Accepting and thriving in a role that’s not the focal point of an offense will be the key to his success in Portland.

他是否使飞跃是任何人的认为s but it’s important to note the numerous red flags. Nurkic took the league by storm but he hasn’t improved much since then. His fouls are down and his shooting has improved slightly but he’s still terrible from the post and largely took a step back this year. The defensive potential will always be there but he hasn’t had a significant impact on that end of the floor over the last two seasons. He also suffered a serious knee injury, took twice as long to come back as predicted, and struggled to get back in shape. This season, he got outplayed, pouted his way onto the bench, and then checked out completely.

In probability, there’s a concept called “expected value.” Essentially, you weigh a certain outcome by multiplying its value with the probability of it coming true. If Nurkic reaches his ceiling, his value will be high, especially for this team. He has an exceptional mixture of abilities that fits with the rest of the roster. However, given his baggage and the lack of progress over the past three years, the probability of that outcome is low. As a result, the expected value of this acquisition has to be low as well. The Nurkic pick-up is the definition of a flyer.

But that’s the beauty of sports. We all root for things that have a very low chance of happening, just to be there for those moments when it all comes together. Here’s hoping the Bosnian Beast can find his powers in Portland and surprise us all.