The Fate of the Trail Blazers Forwards

如果名册保持不变，Portland Trail Blazers在2022-23赛季中，大约需要920亿个警卫，而前锋和中心相对匮乏。您可能会认为他们想缝制自己拥有的更大的球员，并确保前场的未来。但是，至少是当前的指示，不一定是这种情况。

三个前锋 - 约什·哈特（Josh Hart），杰拉米·格兰特（Jerami Grant）和纳西尔·利特尔（Nassir Little）的合同不确定，潜在的谈判即将到来。这与一位读者有关，成为当今西装外套的Edge Mailbag的主题。

Hey Dave,

I know this is a too soon question, but do you expect Hart, Little, and Grant all to be back in the 2023-24 season? What level of success would be needed for that to happen?

多米尼克

让我们澄清一下它们的位置。

乔什·哈特（Josh Hart）明年夏天有一个球员选项。他今年赚了1300万美元。如果Hart不选择退出，则将重复该总和。如果他这样做，他将成为一名不受限制的自由球员。

Jerami Grant is making $21 million this year and will become an unrestricted free agent after the season is over.

Nassir Little is still on his rookie contract. He will have the option to enter restricted free agency in the Summer of 2023. The Blazers will have the right to match contract offers for him, or they can negotiate an extension with him that would preempt the process, much as they did with Anfernee Simons this year.

开拓者队已经承担了约1.31亿美元的CAP义务，该义务为2023-24，而没有计数的上限限制了Grant and Little。除非他们直接释放所有三个前锋，否则他们将无法生成任何可用的盖帽空间（在通常的例外之外）。即使保留其中的一个也会把西装外套放在帽子上。

只需阅读帽子和才华，开拓者失去这些球员就没有意义。在理想的世界中，波特兰可能会保留这三个世界。那是自然的起步立场。

不过，其他因素确实发挥了作用，他们会弄乱计划。

Player willingness matters here. All three forwards have some control over their own destiny, two of them completely. Hart can become a free agent, Grant will, and Little has the option of signing a one-year qualifying offer, then becoming a free agent in 2024.

Little is unlikely to do that. It’s more likely he’ll extend with the Blazers or sign an offer elsewhere that they’ll match. Portland has more control over Little’s situation than Grant’s or Hart’s. He’ll also be the cheapest of the three to retain. That makes him the most likely candidate to return.

Jerami Grant’s case is pretty simple. If the Blazers pay him, he’ll likely stay. If not, of course, he can’t. Portland probably didn’t trade a first-round pick for him just to rent him for a year. Grant probably didn’t nod to Portland with no intention of remaining there. The most obvious scenario is that the Blazers intend to make him an offer that he’ll be amenable to accepting.

Two factors could muddy the waters. First, Grant wants to remain a key hub on both ends of the floor. Portland will encourage him to play all the defense he can, of course, but they’ll also have an interest in keeping him engaged offensively if they want to retain him. If Grant doesn’t get the chance to flourish, the relationship could sour.

If he does flourish, the other factor rears its head. Grant’s contract could get really expensive, really fast. He’s already making $21 million as-is. If he scores near 20 and defends well, the asking price is going to go sky high. The Blazers might be willing to pay, but that’s going to affect what they can do with other players. Grant’s new contract would put the cap line way in the rear-view mirror, as Portland would now be eyeing the luxury tax threshold with trepidation.

我们甚至还没有去哈特。上个赛季，当他与开拓者队自由夺回时，他每场比赛得分20。他是一名全能球员，将需要。我看不到他再次以1300万美元的价格定居，或者留在合同的最后一年。

哈特在轮换中的位置更加复杂。他是一个自然的得分后卫。西装外套在那里齐平。波特兰将找到一种扮演哈特（Hart）的方法 - 他们几乎必须这样做 - 但他将成为次要考虑。即使偶尔打小的前锋或发起进攻，他也可能不会像他的才华那样获得那么多的几分钟 - 几乎肯定不会得到那么多的触摸。

如果哈特（Hart）在波特兰（Portland）的阵容中达到了本赛季的结束，那么由于豪华税收问题，他和球队很可能准备分道扬ways，因为其他地方的牧场更绿色。

For these reasons, the most likely scenario is that Little gets matched or extended, Grant gets re-signed, and Hart gets traded before the deadline, lest he simply leave at the end of the season.

几个因素可能会改变情况。他们包括：

• Portland succeeding wildly this year with all three players filling major roles. This would make them more inclined to keep Hart through the playoffs. It might also make them more willing to exceed the tax threshold next year.
• Portland failing spectacularly to the point that it was evident this roster wasn’t going to work. That would make them less inclined to commit to Grant long-term.
• Little getting injured or not producing, calling his future utility into questions.
• Grant not fitting or flourishing.
• 与其他玩家进行交易，以改变团队景观。例如，如果出于某种不可能的原因，开拓者队将西蒙斯交易，那么哈特将对波特兰变得更有价值。

Any of these is possible, but they’re all towards the edges of the bell curve. Best guess is still that Grant and Little stay, Hart is moved.

Thanks for the question! You all can send yours to blazersub@gmail.com!