Deandre Ayton, Trail Blazers Need to Grow Together

Deandre Ayton came into the NBA in 2018 with huge expectations, befitting a first-overall draft selection. During his five-year tenure with thePhoenix Suns, brilliance and frustration intermingled. In his sixth year, he has a fresh start. ThePortland Trail Blazersmade him their target, the immediate benefit from moving All-Star point guard Damian Lillard and long-time center Jusuf Nurkic earlier this month.

Plenty of Blazers fans are anticipating great things from Ayton in his new home: much more brilliance, much less frustration...including the author of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag question!

Dave,

I for one am excited about our new team and especially DeAndre Ayton at center! Do you think he’s an improvement and do you think he can improve himself with us? I think he’s an all star in the making and might turn out to be one of the best now that he can be the man.

Paul

I believe Ayton has a chance, yes. But everything hangs on his mobility.

Ayton is not a natural “stand in the paint” center. Those have gone out of vogue in the modern NBA. That’s good, because the Blazers are unlikely to use him that way.

I expect Ayton’s offense to come off of screen action and face-up jumpers during his early months in Portland. That suits his play style. It’s also going to be necessary, because (as we’ve mentioned about twelve times this preseason) opponents are going to clog up the inside against the Blazers’ offense until Portland can prove they can shoot over them. That’s not likely to happen soon, so anything they run deep in the lane is going to have defenders all over it. Since Ayton isn’t a three-point threat, he’ll be moving through or around traffic most of the time.

I can see Ayton playing off-ball on offense much in the way Jerami Grant did last season. If Scoot Henderson penetrates on the strong side, Deandre could hang in the midrange on the weak. When Scoot and company draw defenders, they’re one pass to Ayton for a reasonable face-up attempt.

If the Blazers want to get Ayton closer to the action, they can run screens with him. I don’t think they’ll be able to do it with Henderson at first. Both defenders would drop back to protect the lane, leaving two non-shooters with long shots. But Anfernee Simons is another possibility. If Ayton can set a strong screen, Simons would be free for one of his patented insta-threes. (Recall his incredibly quick release.) If defenders moved to crowd Simons, Ayton is a threat for a quick dive down the lane. He can either finish at the rim or pull up. Ayton is also a possibility for a pick and pop, sliding to the side for another face-up shot.

如果开拓者想中心周围的进攻yton, they’ll probably run a variation of what we used to see with LaMarcus Aldridge or, if they want to go further towards the baseline, Rasheed Wallace. A shooter—probably Simons—would enter the ball to Ayton in the extended post. If he’s single-covered, he makes his move. If he draws a double-team, he kicks it back to the passer. He can also go to a spot-up shooter—likely Grant or Malcolm Brodgon—on the other side. Henderson or Shaedon Sharpe would be at the opposite diagonal ready to dive towards the bucket for a pass from Ayton if the lane opens up.

Note how we’ve invoked Jerami Grant, LaMarcus Aldridge, and maybe Rasheed Wallace in describing likely schemes for Ayton. The Blazers are likely to use him more like a multi-talented power forward than a classic center. As such, it’ll be really interesting to see how they work Ayton and Grant together. Between them, the duo can cover nearly the entire court offensively. That creates interesting possibilities. It also leaves them “positionless”. That’s half of the point, but also the challenge. Grant isn’t going to become just a catch-and-shoot player, any more than Ayton would. Watch to see which one of them gets more looks on the left side of the court where you saw Grant hanging last year. Also look to see what the other one is doing during those sets. That’s going to tell you a lot about their potential as a dup heading into the future.

Defense is an easier story, I think. The Blazers should be able to use Ayton much the same way they did Jusuf Nurkic. He’ll be tasked with closing out to the arc, recovering to help in the lane, and being the utility backup on penetration. Nurkic developed a pretty good rhythm in that role as long as he could remain within a couple steps of the lane. Ayton will need to adjust. I wouldn’t be surprised if he collected extra fouls early in the season. But I think his ultimate potential is greater than Nurk’s, as Ayton should be able to operate on the perimeter as well. Plus he’ll get down the court faster than a molasses-coated mule, which will be an improvement.

I’m interested to see how well Ayton sees the floor and passes. That was a semi-hidden facet of Nurkic’s game that paid dividends. I didn’t always like where Nurkic got his shots, but he was usually where he was supposed to be. He also did well as a conduit, increasing the threat from that position. One of the ways Portland’s offense could go wrong this year is parading a series of “your turn, now my turn” possessions. Having a little bit of ball movement out of the center position would help.

The path forward won’t be easy. Ayton will have plenty of opportunities to stumble. We’re not sure the Blazers have the right collection of teammates around him either. But I agree that the potential for growth is real. Ayton will be one of the central storylines of the coming season...the biggest breath in the wave of fresh air that’s hitting the franchise in 2023-24.

Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll get to as many as we can!