Portland Trail Blazers Season Preview: New Centers, New Hope

ThePortland Trail Blazerswill begin their 2023-24 season next Wednesday against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Blazers made more roster moves this summer than any in recent memory. If you’re just tuning in as the season starts, or if you need a refresher, we’re going to get you up to date in our season preview over the next few days.

We’re going to start with the position where Portland clearly upgraded this off-season: center. Jusuf Nurkic—manning the five-spot in Portland since 2016—has now been passed to thePhoenix Suns. In his place stand two highly-regarded younger prospects. The first is the opening selection of the 2018NBA Draft, Deandre Ayton. The second is an upstart from that same draft class, formerBoston Celticsmiddle man Robert Williams III.

Ayton and Williams will bring more athleticism to the position than Nurkic did, but also less polish. How will it shake out? That depends on who they are and how the Blazers use them.

Deandre Ayton

This year Deandre Ayton will play without an organizational ceiling above his head for the first time since he was drafted. His former team, the Phoenix Suns, granted him the blessing and burden of contending. His backcourt consisted of NBA monument Chris Paul and superstar on the rise Devin Booker. Ayton’s own star, though bright, was no better than third in that constellation, more so when the Suns acquired All-Universe forward Kevin Durant last spring.

Under those conditions, Ayton’s career averages of 17 points and 10 rebounds on 60% shooting are impressive. He filled the batter space in the muffin tin completely, spilling over just enough to get the crispy crust on top.

When you’re drafted first overall, though, you’re supposed to be the whole cake. That was never happening in the Valley of the Sun. In Portland, Ayton will have a chance to score, rebound, and impact the game as much as he can. He’s not only the most talented player on the roster (potentially), he’s among the most experienced.

This could go either way, though. Losing the discipline and narrow targets he grew with, Ayton might explode into stardom. He might also fizzle, his skills echoing through empty structure around him.

No matter what, Ayton will be asked to do more in Portland. He’ll take more shots and set more screens. Both his roll and face-up game will get worn out. The Blazers will also depend on him for their rebounding...not just some of it, ALL of it.

Then there’s the defensive end. The most experienced upper-rotation guard on Portland’s roster is Anfernee Simons...not a known stopper. After that the Blazers field rookie Scoot Henderson and sophomore Shaedon Sharpe. The backcourt has athleticism to burn, but almost no experience. Ayton doesn’t just need to plug holes. When that backcourt leaks, he and forward Jerami Grant will comprise the whole dam.

Odds are, even if Ayton is everything dreamed of—with stats approaching 21 and 12—he’s going to spend the season feeling frustration on a team level. If he’s not self-disciplined, his shooting percentage will descend and his foul count escalate as other numbers rise.

That will be the barometer of success for Ayton this year. Can he stay on the floor and play efficiently? If he does so, this will be a season of growth for him too, along with his younger teammates. In that case, the Blazers will be in good shape. If it becomes a lost year for Ayton, though, it almost doesn’t matter what his stats say. Anything south of 26 and 15 would be singing into a hurricane.

Robert Williams III

In September, the Blazers traded franchise stalwart Damian Lillard to theMilwaukee Bucksfor guard Jrue Holiday and draft picks, then moved Holiday to the Boston Celtics for center Robert Williams and more draft picks. The were said to be particularly keen on the 26-year-old, known for his efficiency around the basket, rebounding, and especially his defense.

威廉姆斯已经成为年度最佳防守球员candidate during his five years in Boston. He has strong leaping ability and a 7’4 wingspan. That combination made him a great backstop with the Celtics. His blocked shots are high, his foul numbers low. There’s nothing to disagree with defensively, at least not the way Boston used him.

If the Blazers can keep Williams home on offense and defense, they should find similar benefit. In fact, “Time Lord” might be the best, most enduring complementary piece Portland swung in their flurry of trades this off-season. They finally got the defensive player in the middle they coveted all these years.

Williams faces the same systemic challenges Ayton does, though. Boston’s guards were well-known defenders. That narrowed down the “to do” list for their center. What happens when Williams has to chase all over the floor on a regular basis? What happens when his active reps rise from erasing an occasional mistake to preventing disaster on every second play? It’d be easy to envision him fighting the oncoming ocean tide with a bucket. The effort will be impressive, but the ultimate effect minimal.

The Rest

Ayton and Williams should make a potent one-two punch at center. They may even be able to play together at times. As long as you don’t ask for three-point shots, Ayton is more than capable of going out on the perimeter on offense.

After the primary duo, the experience level falls to almost zero. Portland is taking a flyer on several athletic, untried bigs: Duop Reath, John Butler, Ibou Badji. Badji stands 6’11, the others 7’1. Butler’s 221 total minutes with the Blazers last season marks the only NBA experience between them.

Assessment

Portland will have a chance to develop two potentially-fantastic centers of the future in Ayton and Williams. Both are entering their primes. Either (or both) could be the answer at the pivot for most of the next decade. The Blazers are not only getting a fresh start at center, they’re getting a head start.

Neither center will bring the surety that Nurkic did, and the team around them is nowhere near as stable as last year’s. At best, Ayton and Williams will start setting the foundation. They’re not going to be able to build a house out of whole cloth.

The Blazers will need to grow around their new centers in order to determine their eventual suitability. For now, we’re looking for signs that Ayton and Williams are everything advertised, then watching which holes need to be filled around them so the idling engine of their talent finds a transmission, enough gears and axles to spin the wheels towards winning.

This season isn’t going to hang on Portland’s centers, but the big men will be one of the surest signs indicating the Blazers are on the right track. This is where the organization put its chips. Ayton and Williams need to contribute and develop. Otherwise we’ll be talking about a false start next May instead of the next steps forward.

Stay tuned over the next few days as our preview continues!