What to Expect from the Trail Blazers in 2023-24

The Portland Trail Blazers will open their season tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers at 7:30 PM, Pacific Time. This will mark the beginning of a new era for the Blazers. They can no longer depend on All-Star point guard Damian Lillard, traded to the Milwaukee Bucks in the off-season. Instead, they’ll tip off with a revamped roster. Only one player, Anfernee Simons has been with the team more than two years. Only two—Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon—have more than five years of NBA experience, period. It’s a whole new world for the guys in red and black.

If you haven’t kept up with the reconstruction, we’ve got you covered. We’ve posted primers on Portland’snew centers, theirnebulous collection of forwards, and thecavalcade of exciting guards.

Today we’re going to put it all together, talking about how the Blazers are likely to play at the start of the new year. Given their roster construction, plus their Summer League and preseason history, here are some things you’re likely to see tonight and in the weeks to come.

Quick Offense

With a roster this young and athletic, tempo is the name of the game. The Blazers will fast break whenever they can. Every player in their top six is capable of finishing thunderously. The bench isn’t shabby either.

但将渗透halfcour疯狂的攻击t offense as well. You’re going to see quick shots all game, every game. The longer a possession goes, the worse it will be for this young team. Time increases the opportunities for mistakes. They’re going to take the first available good look, remaining agnostic about who gets it and where. If they can’t manufacture laser-like precision or dream efficiency, Portland will settle for relentless repetition, getting up as many shots as possible, as quickly as possible, figuring that some of them will go in.

This is a much different approach than we saw in the latter stages of Lillard’s time in Portland. It’ll give the Blazers a puncher’s chance every night. Given their youth, they’ll take any chance they can get.

Gambling Defense

Portland boasts some decent defensive players this year: Matisse Thybulle, Robert Williams III, Jerami Grant. Around that trio stand players short on experience, long on athleticism.

The Blazers are well-equipped to play man-to-man defense with strategic switches among interchangeable players. They probably won’t zone it up as much as they did last year. Every individual will shoulder responsibility; nobody gets to hide under the “saving it for offense” blanket anymore.

现实来讲,这个阵容lost even in basic defensive sets. They won’t recognize help situations, let alone rotate into them. Experienced offensive players are going to grind Portland’s perimeter defenders into mincemeat. So are 7-foot forwards, for whom the Blazers have no answer.

Not all is lost. Portland has superior speed, reflexes, and athletic ability. They’ll make up for the lack of know-how by getting up into dribblers and harrying passing lanes, trying to create chaos through opportunism. When their chess-master opponents sit down for a nice, predictable match, Portland will throw on the loudspeakers and disco balls, trying to disrupt the fabric of the game rather than match them move for move.

As players develop, the Blazers will grow out of their need to gamble. Ideally, two or three seasons from now, many of these same players will have defensive know-how coupled with superior athleticism. At that point the team will become scary.

In the meantime, dizzying dives on the defensive end will have to do. The Blazers can live with the reality that it’s not going to work perfectly this season. They just can’t quit on the concept of defense altogether, else they’ll be starting their season three years from now back on square one.

Turnovers

On the up side, the aggressive defense we just mentioned should generate more steals and turnovers for Portland than we’re used to seeing.

On the down side, the Blazers are going to commit a ton of turnovers themselves. Seriously, they should set up a recycling bin for them, lest scientists find a floating island of Portland miscues polluting remote areas of the ocean a decade from now.

Point guard is no longer a secure position. Scoot Henderson is a high-impact, high energy point guard. He’s going to charge into double-teams, then try to pass out of them. Anfernee Simons is not a natural floor leader. Malcolm Brogdon could bring sanity to the point position, but every minute he plays is a minute in which Portland’s young players are not developing.

At shooting guard, Shaedon Sharpe is expected to be random, Thybulle limited. None of Portland’s bench forwards or bigs have an offensive game to speak of, leaving Deandre Ayton and Grant watched like hawks when they catch the ball. They’ll have few three-point shooters to pass to, leaving the opponent free to crowd inside. Anyone with a decent defense is going to know exactly where to hit the Blazers and when. That ain’t good.

Other than perhaps Brogdon, nobody on the team is equipped to slow the ball, calm the team, and set up plays. Nobody else has experience or confidence with teammates and sets, even if definable ones were run. Put that all together, and the risk of turnovers and botched plays increases exponentially.

The best the Blazers can hope for most nights will be giving as good as they get, evening out the turnover battle, not running a huge deficit. Failing that, they’ll hope to narrow the edge enough that volume shot attempts can make up the difference. It’s a sketchy way to operate, but it’s what they can do right now.

Fouls

Lack of experience and randomness will also create issues on the defensive end. Portland’s centers, Ayton and Williams, are also among their most experienced defenders. They’re going to be depended on for literally everything: watching their own men, closing out sideline threes, recovering to help in the middle, erasing the mistakes of their young guards. The new center duo will be quicker on their feet than Jusuf Nurkic was, but no amount of quickness will limit their exposure. Foul opportunities will abound. Sheer repetition is going to bring whistles a’blowin’.

Thankfully, the Blazers have two centers this year, not just one. But if opponents punch through that second layer, using referees as proxies, Portland is sunk.

Watching personal foul totals and free throw disparity this year will tell you a ton about how, or whether, the Blazers are staying in games.

Who Rebounds?

Rebounding will be key to completing Portland’s defensive stands and staging opportunities to run on offense. The big question is, who’s going to stand out on the boards?

Jerami Grant is not an accomplished rebounder. The Blazers will be tempted to convert shooting guards intoad hocsmall forwards to keep a little bit of experience and/or extra offense on the floor. That leaves the centers as the primary, maybe the only, glass cleaners on the floor.

Deandre Ayton’s rebounding stats are solid. Portland will need him to be great. They’ll also need to conjure another rebounder out of thin air. If the guards have to do it, there go the perimeter aggressiveness and fast break opportunities.

The Blazers don’t have to win the board battle every night, but they can’t get blown out. At this point, it looks like a real risk.

Three-Pointers

Three-point shooting is one of the most commonly-developed skills in the league. Let’s hope the Blazers have a good learning coach and plenty of pupils. Otherwise, this won’t be pretty.

Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Malcolm Brogdon have been stellar at the arc at various times in their career. Matisse Thybulle was slightly better than average last year, Shaedon Sharpe slightly worse. We’re a long way from the heyday of Lillard and CJ McCollum.

Ideally the Blazers can manage at least streaky success from distance. They’re bound to be hot and cold. If it averages to warm, they’ll probably be ok. But opponents are going to make them prove they can hit threes before respecting the shot. If the long ball starts clanking on the regular, Portland will have a hard time attacking the rim.

At, and Above, the Rim

Speaking of, the Blazers probably intend to blitz the basket in every quarter of the game. The general idea is to take lumps early in the game, then soar when the opponent tires. Youthful stamina has got to be good for something.

The capability is there. Fully matured, this roster would boast intimidation potential not seen in the Rose City since Clyde Drexler, Jerome Kersey, and Buck Williams roamed the floor.

Translating forward momentum into victories may be beyond their grasp, but the social media staff of the Blazers should have plenty of highlight fodder to post anyway. Odds are you’ll see the score of each game in small font beneath a full-sized video of somebody getting loose and throwing down viciously over ducking opponents. You shouldn’t bet on the Blazers this year, but you better not blink.

Up Next

We’ll continue to post relevant news and previews throughout the day up until two hours before tip-off. Then the first Game Day Thread of the season will go up, one for each half. Following the game we’ll have an instant recap of the action, followed by extended analysis later on.

Enjoy opening day, and welcome to the 2023-24 season!