The Unexpected “Oops” Plaguing the Trail Blazers’ Season Start

The Portland Trail Blazers are off to an 0-2 start to their 2023-24 regular season campaign. Falling to the Los Angeles Clippers on opening night was not unexpected. Scoring only 97 versus the Orlando Magic was a bit more of a shock. The Blazers were missing super-scorer Anfernee Simons in that second game, but they are supposed to be flush with scoring at the guard positions. Not being able to mount a credible threat against a young Eastern Conference also-ran is concerning.

Many of the issues facing the Blazerswere predictable: lack of three-point shooting, committing turnovers, getting whistled for wheelbarrows full of fouls, poor rebounding. But one trend comes as a near-complete surprise, something the Blazers should probably address before the season gets much deeper.

Despite being young, the Blazers are supposed to be pretty stacked in the top six rotation slots. Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, insert small forward here, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, and Shaedon Sharpe make you sit up and take notice. With that combination of talent and athleticism, you might even claim this team is better than advertised.

So far, they’ve been worse. That’s been happening in part because only half of those players have mattered, at least on offense.

Looking atshot attempts per 36 minutes, Malcolm Brogdon leads the Blazers with 21.1. He’s sixth in total minutes played, but second in shots attempted. Sharpe is second in per-minute attempts with 19.0 per 36. Simons is third with 18.7

Only then do you get to Jerami Grant. Coming in fourth behind three guards is not, in itself, an issue. But Grant’s attempts per 36 reads 14.2, leaving a huge gap between him and Simons in the third spot...the biggest gap between any two players on the whole roster. In other words, it’s not a close fourth. Grant is far closer to the mid-players in shot attempts than the top ones.

The story gets worse when you scroll down and find Deandre Ayton with only 8.7 shot attempts per 36 minutes. That’s ninth on the team, underneath Robert Williams and Jabari Walker, just barely above Toumani Camara.

Together, Grant and Ayton—Portland’s talented bigs who were both expected to edge forward this season—take 22.9 shot attempts per 36 minutes. Brogdon, the veteran sixth man, takes 21.1.

Malcolm Brogdon has been a steadying force for the Blazers. He’s an incredibly valuable piece on this young team. But that can’t continue. Nor Sharpe and Simons at 19 if Grant and Ayton just aren’t shooting.

Ayton is still hitting 69.2% of his field goal attempts, a huge number. That’s to the good. Grant is shooting just 34.6% from the field against 47.5% last season. He’s also hitting 11.1% from distance, down just a wee bit from his 40.1% rate last year. Obviously the sample size is tiny, but via the eye test, Grant isn’t getting the spot-up looks he benefited from last season and his quality touches in key mid-range scoring positions are almost nonexistent.

The Blazers need to find a way to free up Jerami Grant for more shot opportunities. They also need to take advantage of the opportunities Deandre Ayton already has, assuming he can stay on the floor without foul trouble. Until the shooting and scoring ledger gets more balanced, those bigs aren’t going to have nearly the effect that their names promise.