Comment that should have been a Fanpost. Just some thoughts on Scoot. I've dove into Scoot a bit and commented about his statistical production but I've watched as much game on him as I could as well. I threw in these "All Possessions" videos tho as they cut the fat and make things easier to see. I'm stoked on Scoot but I have some concerns as well. This isn't some perfect analysis but just off-hand a bit. I don't want to quibble on the edges...the greater gist is what's important. If you think I'm full of crap, please provide some evidence, not just some "snarky strawman question"...there's too much of that.
This first game is a late Feb Game after Scoot had come back from a Jan ankle injury. Competition wise, none of the Memphis guards even scored more than 2pts in 30mins. Dakota Mathias, Jacob Gilyard. Some of these later season games Scoot was perhaps coasting not trying to get hurt. But he played well in this one.
VS Memphis Hustle - Feb 23 2023
- Scoot has a heck of a passing game. They hand out Assists pretty easily but Scoot consistently makes the simple reads. It's not super high level creation like Steve Nash or whatever but the kid can pass the ball and really make "the easy play". His eyes are REALLY up when he's dribbling around. 14 assists and a few youthful turnovers but that's all.
- Scoot gets some of those DWade kind of blocks in this game. Has good hands when he's in the mix. Refs in the NBA will punish him a bit because NBA refs are corrupt against rookies.
- Rebounds well. He's down there grabbing boards often.
- Scoring wise, he loves that midrange jump shot. He takes it a lot at least. Tho you can see he's not good at getting by even random white guys that are checking him. If you watch at 4:15 mark...its not pretty and he's not double teamed. He's just not that explosive in the first step. He seems to need some runway similar to Anfernee Simons or a pick. Reliant on the pick to get free. I think some of it might be his handle. I think when he's dribbling, he's not that explosive...but when he can catch and jab-step...he can really move...tho he's not a big threat on catch and shoot in the NBA for now. Its a bit weird.
- Finishing...not blowing by the POA random dude isn't helping him finish as he's not free to use his footwork since his original guy is still checking him. Not a great finisher yet around the rim unless it's a bunny. His hands help him here but there is a lack of skill there for sure. Some of them are prayers. Not sure he makes a single layup all game. Doesn't finish with the left much...not sure how that skill looks. I'm guessing its worse than his right.
- His shot isn't bad. It works in the midrange pretty damn well. I actually like his FT shot mechanics worse than the rest. He's got a hitch in there. I think his shot will come along like Dearron Fox's is my guess. He'll get there.
- Defensively, he can get beat at times by less than super-star guys. He's got good opportunistic hands deeper in the paint.
VS Birmgingham Jan 3rd 2023
26pts, 8 assists (5 TO), 5 boards, 10-13 FG, 1 stl
Scoot hasn't hurt his ankle yet and has a heck of a shooting game aside from some poor turnovers.
- 你会看到很多你所看到的在2月的游戏, tho Scoot gets free for some bunny layups and very difficult poster dunk too. Opportunist layups where he can get some daylight are good...tho you see the same issue where he's not quick enough off the bounce to get by the random defenders
- His right hand snatch-back jumper is pretty dope. He wont be stepping over Ty Lue anytime but he's good at that and uses his body to create space out of it.
- Not great at finishing And-1's due to mentioned finishing skills being not so great. He can use his strength and football tuck to get to the rim well to create a bunny finish. Fairly right hand focused I think.
- Floater game is just OK
Vs OKC Blue
25 pts (7-16 FG, 7-11 FT), 7 Ast, 2 Reb, 2 TO
- Early game in the season but after the Wemby exhibition.
- I like the big And-1 finish at 1:30 but he still gets checked by his first guy not getting by him. I know he's faster than that...but he's not using it all the time. Abit odd. The impact is that it allows both guys to recover to him with half-way decent position. Had an easy And-1 previously but just blew the slow-speed scoop (and go FT's).
- You can see what I'm talking about previous at 1:45 mark...Scoot struggling to move the ball up the court in ISO and then getting a charge. So weird.
- He's soooo reliant on that midrange off the bounce. Some of them are good. Particularly going right. At times on the left tho he shoots it VERY similar to Westbrooks stop-and-pop where he puts his hands down in the "holsters" immediately after releasing. It's quick but I'm not sure its great. A lot of his other midrange is quick good. That snatchback is good.
- So many mid-range jumpers. Layup at 3:25 is dope...but it's off a midrange jumper miss and he got a free lane.
- 3:50 gets a nice pick, gets the big 1n1 at the rim...doesn't go at him but settles for a very nice Pull Up Jumper from 8ft that is under control and smooth.
- 3:58 - explosive off the catch and shoot! Misses the wide open bunny layup. Its these things that worry me. This isn't DRose, DWade, Fox, Morant territory. Scoot is strong and athletic but his game is kind of like that of a less skilled, less efficient, less defensive, but more athletic 19yro CP3 (who was amazing). There's just not that many athletic style plays (half court or transition) to make me think of those other guys. It's just a mountain of mid-range jumpers and very nice assists. Even when Scoot goes off the pick, he's often jogging not attacking. Some of that is nice because it allows his big to roll.
- Right hand cross court pass to the corner is dope.
- 4:13……看他怎么快速读取和的两倍moves the ball. He knows it's coming. Him not exploding into it helps him here. Kind of James Harden esk. The easy play...not at breakneck speed.
- 4:20 - again...nice pick and crossover. Gets the big on an island 8-10ft out. Settles for the midrange jumper rather than attack to get to the other side of the rim. For a freak athlete...its a weird decision and turns a layup or FT into an early clock miss.
- 4:25 - slowmo Pick and Roll - his big roll man beats him into the paint. I like the idea (tho his sniper shooter was at the top and open) but the speed is so slow the defense has time to read it all enough to get a hand on it. To the point where TWO defenders almost stole the ball at the same time (leaving the topside open). Again, super athletic dude...but plays rather slow often.
- 4:50 - jogs back on defense and then takes a lazy foul at the rim.
- 4:55 - slow PnR into a tough midrange J...silky smooth make but that will be contested in the NBA every time.
- 5:03 - not explosive out of the PnR...but gets the big alone. This is normally where you'd often see a tuck into a Eurostep finishing on left side using the rim to protect the shot... as the big is 10ft out there. Defender recovers and misses the block, foul.
- Scoot plays some hard defense, long arms and big hands create a nice turnover. Moved his feet really well before.
- Creates contact on the mid-range...nicely gets to the line with 1:38 on the clock.
- End of Game Isolation Play - Scoot jab steps his guy, on an island...doesn't get by his guy or create any space. Very contested mid-range jump shot. Again, it's this stuff where you go...yeah not DRose, Ja, Fox, Wade etc. He's just not like those guys off the bounce. Westbrook perhaps (or better early on at least) and Westbrook wasn't a super star at 19 at all. When you watch Westbrook in college against Rose (video below)...you don't even really recognize Westbrook. Regardless, I don't think Scoot plays like Westbrook.
I think we are gonna get some form of this Scoot in his first season. He's going to pass the ball really well but he's not going to abuse his man and then create off of that, especially with guys sagging off him like they do in G League. He'll require a pick 80% of the time I think. Maybe that's his handle or maybe he just isn't that explosive off the first step. We'll see but that's where he'll operate for now and he's damn good at passing out of it for sure! At some point he'll need to be an ISO threat and get by his man be it off the catch or not. Not there yet and neither is his handle (I think...). Like he scored nicely in this last video...but I really don't like how much he likes his mid-range jumper and settles for it even when other options are there that will 1) get him layups and 2) get him the ever holy FT's. NBA length and defenses will be able to bother that midrange shot a lot more as they can sag off his 3ptr and not have to worry about an ankle breaker creating a layup or floater either.
If his mid-range shot isn't falling...he'll still contribute via his passing and everything else but that shot needs to fall for him to be a scoring threat. He's not going to get lots of easy athletic buckets at the rim. So I dunno, a buckets a bucket and as much I as I don't like the midrange...it's a critical part of the game for a lot of guys from CJ to Durant to Booker etc. He's gotta be able to get to the rim and actually finish tho. It's just so unbalanced towards the mid-range that I'm not sure that's very sustainable. I'm high on him being our pick still and I wouldn't trade him. There's a lot of upside there still! His shot is already quite good...he just needs more range on it and some Shaedon Sharpe footwork at the 3pt line. The passing tho...man, it's going to fascinating watching him move the ball. The lobs to Sharpe...goodness.
Fwiw...you gotta tip your hat to Shaedon. His footwork and shooting form is so damn primo. At all three levels of footwork. And the finishing control with both hands. Unreal for 19. That floaty side-step 3pt for sure too, even when it doesn't go in...I'm like "Keep doing that, it'll come and then it'll be UNSTOPPABLE". Like he came out of HS or whatever as a pretty legit 3 level scorer. As you can see, even with super hyped guys like Scoot/Miller...it's REAL hard to be a three level scorer. Even when it doesn't go in, you can see Sharpe has put in the work on his shooting footwork. It's a video game dance move...just press X.
Scoot Catch and Shoot:
He's not great here yet and is a better shooter off those mid-range fades etc. You don't want to play him off the ball extensively for now.
For fun...DRose (Freshman!) vs Westbrook (sophmore) in the Semi-Finals
So...DRose is just on another level athletically. People need to not compare guys to Rose. Westbrook not that impressive here right? I think Scoot, currently, reminds me of a poor mans 19yro Jason Kidd (2nd pick overall!) with some more athleticism but fair a bit less skill. Kidd was unreal...and unreal on both sides of the court. And he was a totaaalll nightmare in Transition. Or CP3 for that matter. I think Scoot is more of that mold than a Derrick Rose mold. But he's not coming out of college/G League with anywhere near the skillset on offense and defense that those two legends had. Freaking Kidd avg 8 assists and 4 steals a game as a freshman...but man did he have style too. So we'll see what Scoot looks like as a rookie. Again, he's more of an upside play than a finished product like a CP3. Nothing wrong with that.
Further comparisons for efficiency vs G-League and other players:
我在想溜走的TS %和同情red to the rest of the G-League...similar to TS%+ stat. After watching a lot of his games and looking at statistical breakdowns...I'm worried about his less than elite scoring abilities, most glaringly his reliance on mid-range and seemingly limited ability to get to the rim and finish at a high rate and %. Obviously a ton of upside (don't trade him!!) but I'm curious as to what to expect from Scoot his first year or so.
Scoot Compared to G-League:
So the G-League 2023 Average TS% is approx 60%...same if you include their extra games etc. Scoot is only 55% TS. Well below league average, sadly. Our boy Brandon Williams (6-2 athletic guy - 23yro - which is for sure older) is right on the dot at G League Average.
Compared to the rest of the G-League Starting Guards who played more than 20 games:
Scoot is 88th out of 98 guards in TS%.
If you only include high usage guards (usage over 22%) - Scoot is second to last in TS%. Out of 31 High usage starting Guards. The average being 61% TS% there with Scoot at 55%. Scoot is the youngest there with the average age being 24yo. The next youngest guy is 20yro...TS% right on average at 61%.
This is pretty much representative of what you see from him in games too. Lots and lots of midrange pullups and not much rim action. Not a lot of blow bys or crazy one-man transition runouts (outside of a back court steal bunny).
For Context:
The last big pick out of the G-League (G-League Ignite too) and NBA draft #2 pick was 19yro Jalen Green in 2021. That year, the G-League average TS% was only 57% league wide. Jalen Green was above average at 61% TS. In the NBA as a 19yro - his TS% dropped 6pts to 55% tho his 3pt% held steady but the rest of his efficiency did not in the transition. Like Scoot, Jalen was not on a good team.
So its hard to extrapolate exactly what happens with Scoot as he transitions from G-League to NBA. I'm guessing his passing will hold up well!! Tho I bet his scoring efficiency, if he gets solid 20mins+, will be similar to Anfernee Simons (also an athletic guard). When Ant got 20 mins a night in his second season, he was a 50% TS guy. 33% from 3pt and only 45% from 2pt with 8 pts...which isn't really pretty unfortunately. They are/were both athletes, without elite shifty handles and both struggle to get to the rim and finish contested there. Both can yam it with some room/time. Of course Scoot can pass the ball at an elite level out of the PnR which makes him have more impact.
Projected Impact:
我猜,8到10分/ ts / 4次助攻50% 20mins a night is where we find Scoot if that's his minutes profile. That kind of sucks outside of the assists but it is what it is. Devin Booker got 27mins as a 19yro with size. He was 53% TS, 34% from 3pt/14pts and only 3 assists but Scoot isn't nearly as talented of a scorer and Book at 19.
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