FanPost

The comprehensive Dame "Market"

I was commenting in a recent post about how people are overestimating the market for Dame, even absent his trade demands, and that going through every team in the league would be an exercise that Blazer fans wouldn't like the results of, and so I figured it would be useful to actually do it.

On top of that, there's also been a weird secondary argument about whether nobody or everybody wants Dame. The former because he's 33 and making a comical amount of money, the latter because he's a top 2-3 offensive player in the league and a top 75 player, etc. I think both are right to an extent, but it's also kind of beside the point for a couple reasons:

  1. Lots of teams that Dame makes sense on can't even beat the Heat's current offer, i.e. Phoenix
  2. There's a definitional difference between "wants" Dame, and "wants Dame enough to send out enough multiple picks/players/salary for him".

A couple of additional ground rules before hopping into the list.

  1. 我在考虑什么其他团队可以/将willing to send back, but only in the sense of whether it would be "enough" for a star, using the reported Heat deal that Blazer fans are in unanimous agreement isn't enough as a baseline. I'm not going to construct a trade for every team, nor care whether we would want their assets in a two team deal. If they have assets that we don't like because of fit, then I'll assume that they can be re-routed, but I'm ruling out the oft-cited trade posts type deals where people throw in a 3rd team solely to plunder a couple picks off them and make the deal better. For example, Utah isn't sending out 2 firsts for the privilege of taking on D'Angelo Russell's contract because the Lakers don't have enough firsts. If a team isn't anywhere close on their own assets, no angel third team is coming in to save them.
  2. There are value judgements here. I'm trying to give a little benefit of the doubt, but ignoring nonsense like what if the Hornets actually think they CAN contend with LaMelo and Dame this year? They don't. Along the same lines, X team/GM has done something stupid before isn't a valid reason.

This will be loosely sorted into tiers, so just diving into it now. In roughly ascending tiers from teams that have no interest to teams that actually might take him

1. Zero Interest Whatsoever

Just in terms of the overall tier, these teams probably don't even pick up the phone if they could snag Dame off waivers. Not quite that ridiculous, but even if Dame were to request a trade to them specifically, they're probably not even making the baseline Miami offer.

Denver Nuggets: Still too hungover to pick up the phone

Charlotte Hornets: The on-court fit with LaMelo is awful, the team is in no shape to contend in the next couple seasons, and they're cheap. They're completely irrelevant here, so moving on.

Washington Wizards: They already pivoted to tank this summer. Even less discussion-worthy than Charlotte.

Detroit Pistons: They've already got a million young guards, the entire team is young and nowhere near contention even with Dame. What does Dame do for them at all?

2. Also Zero Interest, But Slightly More than the Last Tier

These are also non-factors to the discussion, but they maybe aren't completely idiotic on its face. Almost completely idiotic, but possibly under some hyper-specific circumstances they make a little more sense than the last few teams.

俄克拉荷马城雷霆:老实说,他们可能贝尔ong in the last tier, but since they were in the play-in last year, you can maybe convince yourself that they'd be interested in moving their timeline up, particularly since they have enough future picks that they can beat almost any offer without even emptying their warchest. To be clear, they're not interested and wouldn't be, though. The fit with SGA is bad, and they're on an obvious upward trajectory

印第安纳步行者队:很明显,也不感兴趣,but you could at least theoretically play Dame alongside Haliburton, and they're in a little two timelines thing with Turner and him, but they've got a nice young core and an elite PG and it doesn't make sense at all for them to push chips in.

Sacramento Kings, Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, New York Knicks: I lump all these teams together because they're all playoff teams that would ostensibly looking for a star to take the next step, but all of them already have star PGs. Even if Dame might be a short-term upgrade over any of them, they're not looking to replace any of them.

San Antonio Spurs: I know people have been trying to make the case here, but that case is stupid and bad, IMO. Blazersedge would absolutely riot if we traded Dame plus picks for KD on the basis that we have Scoot, but that's basically the reasoning that people are insisting that they'd be interested in Dame. Nothing on their roster says winning before Dame's 35th/36th birthday. Even if Wemby is great right away, it just doesn't make sense to give up future assets for someone that will be declining as Wemby gets into his prime.

3. Who the Heck Knows?

Houston Rockets: They should be in the last tier, but they get their own with the next team simply because their offseason makes no sense to me. I would be shocked if they had any interest in acquiring Dame after signing FVV and drafting Amen, but whatever.

Golden State Warriors: I guess it's just the hometown connection, and that he makes ostensibly more sense than CP3, but Dame is just a godawful basketball fit here and CP3 is only a backup right now. The financial implications are absurd as well given that CP3 is effectively an expiring, and Dame is not, to say the least, but it's an appropriately weird story.

4. Teams That would be Interested, but have Nothing to Trade

This is the tier where the main disconnect with the "nobody wants Dame" argument collides. All of these teams would gladly be bidding on Dame, and probably have, but what they have to offer makes Miami's reported offer look like the Gobert trade. All teams that would gladly take Dame, and probably would beat Miami's offer if they could, but they just can't.

Los Angeles Lakers: Already traded everything for AD, and then for depth with the Russ trades. Don't bring up AD here either. That's not happening.

Los Angeles Clippers: Like with the Lakers, they just don't have the assets.

Phoenix Suns: Nothing more needs to be said here.

密尔沃基雄鹿队:这里的财政问题nable, but they also just don't have any young prospects, their salary is all tied up in their stars, and they have future picks tied up for the Holiday deal.

Dallas Mavericks: All they really have in terms of salary is Kyrie. It's not happening.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Do you like KAT? Gobert? No. Cool, that's all they have to offer. No picks, nothing else.

Chicago Bulls: I toyed with putting them in a later tier, but all they really have to offer is Lavine. Even with the pick we owe them they're in a similar pick tie-up situation with SA and the DDR trade so they can't offer a ton of future picks. Maybe you think different, but you'd have to really love Pat Williams to like anything they can offer.

5. Teams That Would Make Theoretical On Court Sense, but are in no rush to contend

These teams weren't great last year, and are similar to a few of the teams in the "also zero interest" tier, but are placed higher here simply because they don't have their PG position already clearly filled. The fit makes sense from a positional standpoint, but is fairly nonsensical from an age perspective.

Orlando Magic: A bunch of interesting young guys and an extra future first from Denver makes it easy to assemble a Dame package, but to what end? Dame probably has an outsized impact on that roster and gets them solidly into the playoff picture in the east, but a Dame/Banchero/WCJ core isn't vaulting you into immediate contention. They've got a cheap young core that can grow together without pressure, so why throw that away to bet on a couple years of Dame?

Utah Jazz: People love this because of Dame's connection to the state and they're looking at all those Cleveland and Minnesota picks and salivating. They have a few more guys farther along in their prime like Lauri and Collins, but they JUST blew up a win now roster, and it's not like they become obvious contenders next year if they acquire Dame. It might not be completely insane for them to trade for Dame, but they can afford to be picky here, and no one is going to force Danny Ainge into anything.

New Orleans Pelicans: With the exception of CJ and Valanciunas, they're a young team. They have a clear PG need, but also a massive Zion issue and I don't see how getting Dame resolves that at all. And unless they're moving CJ, then reuniting Dame/CJ is a problem.

Brooklyn Nets: One of everyone's favorite candidate, but I don't see it. Like Utah, they just got done divesting themselves of stars and had a fun team to finish the season. People cite them for a reason, and they obviously make sense if they keep their main pieces in the deal, but it's not like they need to push their chips in now, any more than we needed to back when Dame was Bridges' age in the 2016ish time span.

6. Teams that Make Sense on Paper, but Have Other Issues

Philadelphia 76ers: It's an obvious fit, but they don't really have assets. I don't include them in the earlier tier because they could theoretically get some by trading Harden, but it's a little more complicated than most asset swaps. Pending finding out what those assets are, they might also belong in that tier, though.

Toronto Raptors: The main problem with both Toronto and Dame is financial. Essentially the entire main Toronto rotation will be FAs after this season (Siakam, Trent, OG). Barnes will be an RFA the following season. Obviously some of those pieces would be sent to us or someone else, but it's really an ugly financial outlook to tack on Dame's massive deal to the rest of them for a team that isn't owned by Steve Ballmer or Mat Ishbia. It certainly makes sense to put Dame with the rest of their roster, but I think people overstate how much it makes sense.

Boston Celtics: The other main team that people bring up. All indications are that Jaylen Brown isn't on the table, nor should he be since it would mean we sign him as an impending FA (I know extend-and-trades exist, but he's not giving up 2 years of guarantees to extend, much like Grant didn't), and that would be insane on our part. And so with them keeping Brown, like with Toronto, the financial implications are comical. And having already made a big move and making themselves effectively co-favorites for the title, are they really that motivated to make themselves even bigger favorites?

Then there's obviously Miami left over, who are clearly more motivated to contend now than the teams in the fifth tier, and can make an obviously better offer than the teams in the fourth tier. But those last two tiers are really just the entirety of the even the potential Dame market, ultimatums from Goodwin or not. But let's be clear that "you can make a case for them wanting him" is a huge difference from "they want him and will give up a ton for him", to call back to the start. Like with OG, no matter how much we scream at Masai about how he should be interested in Dame, if he's not, then he's not.

No matter who Dame says he will or will not play for, some portion of the fanbase seems to assume that there's some magic pile of other teams just waiting in the wings both with a farm to give up for Dame and the clear motivation to do it. There are certainly other possible suitors, but they're ones we've already talked about a bunch and don't appear to be interested thus far while also claiming that Dame's preference aren't constraining them, at least on background. Aaron Goodwin isn't helping things, but that's not the main issue we're seeing with regard to Dame's value is what I've mostly wanted to show here.